NC State faced a tough night in Charlottesville, taking a 29-point hit from No. 11 Virginia.
But here's the silver lining: the Wolfpack's standing in the ACC remains unchanged. Despite the 90-61 defeat, they hold firm in fourth place, still eyeing a Top-4 finish and that coveted double bye in the ACC Tournament.
Before the Virginia Game
Heading into the matchup, NC State's odds for finishing in the top spots were as follows:
- 1st place: less than 1%
- 2nd place: 5%
- 3rd place: 19%
- 4th place: 33%
This gave them a solid 57% chance to secure a Top-4 finish.
After the Loss
While the loss to Virginia closed the door on a first or second-place finish, the broader outlook remains promising. NC State now holds a 41% chance of ending in the Top-4, broken down as:
- 3rd place: 7%
- 4th place: 34%
In fact, they lead the pack with the highest odds of finishing fourth as they approach the conference tournament.
Keeping Perspective
Interestingly, NC State was projected to land fourth in the official ACC 2025-26 Preseason Poll, a prediction that still holds water. There's more on the line too-if the Wolfpack clinch a Top-4 seed in the ACC Tournament, head coach Will Wade will pocket a $100,000 bonus.
So, while the night in Charlottesville was rough, it didn't derail their journey. The stakes are higher, but the goal is still within reach.