NC State's recent struggles continued Thursday night with a tough 18-point loss to Duke, falling short of the 10-point margin many expected. This marks the second consecutive game where the Wolfpack has underperformed, prompting a closer look at their performance against top-50 opponents compared to last season.
While NC State's overall performance isn't poor, a few close losses to teams like USC, Oklahoma, and Louisville have been pivotal. If those had swung the other way, we might be singing a different tune. It’s clear, though, that the team isn't hitting the high notes we've come to expect from this program.
Last season, NC State elevated its game against top-50 teams, boasting a BARTHAG ranking of No. 8 in those challenging matchups, compared to an overall ranking of 13. This year, the trend has reversed, with the team sitting at No. 31 against top-50 teams and No. 23 overall.
A glaring issue has been the lack of perimeter scoring. The team has shot a mere 25.9% from beyond the arc in these 13 games, ranking 212th nationally.
Even with a three-point attempt rate that ranks 261st, selectivity hasn’t translated to efficiency. The Duke game highlighted this struggle, as NC State attempted just six threes and failed to make any, underscoring a significant problem.
Defensively, the absence of Saniya Rivers has been felt across the board. The Wolfpack hasn't defended the paint as effectively and isn't forcing as many turnovers-a known characteristic of Wes Moore’s teams. While rebounding has generally held up, poor performances against teams like Duke and Louisville have been costly.
Looking ahead, NC State should close the regular season on a positive note, with an upcoming home game against Syracuse and two of the league's weaker teams to follow. However, questions linger about their potential in the ACC tournament and the NCAA's second weekend. If they can't elevate their play against strong opponents, those aspirations may remain out of reach.