The latest ACC preseason poll gives NC State an 8th-place forecast under Justin Gainey, but the bigger question is what the Wolfpack usually do with those kinds of expectations. Over the last 20 seasons, the answer has leaned the wrong way.
NC State has finished below its preseason projection 11 times in that span. It has beaten the number seven times and landed exactly where it was picked twice. That’s not exactly a program that has spent two decades making the poll look smart.
The trend has gotten worse lately, too. NC State has now fallen short of its preseason spot in three straight seasons.
That run includes a 2023-24 team that was picked 7th and finished 10th in the regular season. Yes, that group later won the ACC Tournament and reached the Final Four, which changed the way the season is remembered. But in terms of conference play, the Wolfpack still came up short of the preseason view.
The next two years were even more disappointing. In 2024-25, Kevin Keatts’ final team was projected 8th and ended up 16th. Then came Will Wade’s only season in Raleigh, when NC State entered 2025-26 picked 4th and finished 7th.
The harshest miss in the past 20 years belongs to Sidney Lowe’s 2007-08 team. NC State was picked 3rd and ended up 12th, a nine-spot drop.
The next biggest stumble came in 2024-25. Mark Gottfried’s final team was forecast to finish 6th but landed 13th.
And 2012-13 remains one of the memorable what-could-have-beens: the Wolfpack went into that season as the preseason favorite to win the ACC and finished 5th.
There have been bright spots, though. NC State has beaten its preseason ranking seven times over the past 20 seasons, with three of those coming under Mark Gottfried. In fact, Gottfried’s six-year run produced the best average finish of the group at 8.3.
The biggest overachievement came in 2017-18, Keatts’ first season. NC State was picked 12th and finished 5th, a seven-place jump that stands as the program’s best positive gap over the last two decades.
That matters now because history shows first-year head coaches at NC State have often outperformed the preseason line. Sidney Lowe, Mark Gottfried and Kevin Keatts all did it in their opening seasons. Will Wade was the exception, finishing three spots below his projection.
So Gainey inherits a familiar challenge: proving the preseason poll wrong. The past 20 years say NC State usually has trouble meeting expectations, but they also say a new coach can walk in and beat them right away.
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