NC State’s second exhibition brings a sharper test into focus.
The Wolfpack meet Mississippi State on Sunday, Oct. 18 at 4:00 PM at First Horizon Coliseum in Greensboro, N.C., with tickets still available. There is no TV or streaming option listed by GoPack.
The Bulldogs come in from the SEC, and the preseason numbers have this one lining up as a close matchup: KenPom has NC State at No. 65 and Mississippi State at No. 69, while Torvik lists the Wolfpack at No. 33 and the Bulldogs at No. 62.
Evan Miya slots NC State at No. 38 and Mississippi State at No. 75.
It is still an exhibition, but this one carries more weight than the usual early October tune-up. Teams stumble in these games all the time and still go on to have strong seasons.
Tennessee’s 16-point loss to Xavier this week is the latest reminder. Xavier put up 59 points in the second half, and as the source material notes, they might be missing Coach Gainey right now.
The context around this NC State team makes the matchup matter even more. With so much roster turnover, every look at this group comes with a little extra scrutiny. And after Mississippi State, the next five exhibition opponents - Lenoir-Rhyne, Campbell, ETSU, Presbyterian and Troy - should not offer the same kind of challenge.
For Justin Gainey, this is also a first big chance to make an impression as NC State’s head coach. He is back at his alma mater, and he is just the fourth NC State alum hired as head coach in the modern era since Case.
The results for those coaches have been mixed, to put it mildly. Gainey is also the fourth current ACC head coach at his alma mater, the sixth youngest in the league and tied for last in ACC head coaching experience.
In other words, he has every reason to want this team to look organized and competitive right away.
The preseason expectations tilt toward the Wolfpack. Mississippi State is not projected to finish in the top half of the SEC and is not expected to reach the NCAA tournament.
NC State, meanwhile, is expected to finish in the middle of the ACC and has a shot at the tournament. The rankings lean toward the Pack, too, and the expectation is that NC State should win this game.
Last season’s last-second win over a poor USC team did not sit well and has not been forgotten.
The biggest question may be what the defense looks like under Gainey. One of the main factors in this team’s success will be whether he can get mostly average defenders to execute at a high level.
Nobody is expecting Tennessee-level defense this early, but consistent intensity is a fair ask. What NC State wants to see now are the first signs of a defense that could be good a month or two down the road.
Mississippi State brings a real challenge on the perimeter. Josh Hubbard, listed at 6-foot, 190 pounds, is one of the country’s better scorers at 22.1 points per game.
Last season he scored more than 40 twice in SEC games and topped 30 in five other games. Coach Goins saw him score 42, Coach Gainey saw 31 and Coach Driscoll saw 23.
He is expected to handle point guard duties, which likely sends Edmead, listed at 6-foot-1 and 180 pounds, into that assignment.
The Bulldogs’ other scoring threat is RJ Johnson, a mid-major transfer listed at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. He scored 30 or more twice and 20-plus seven times, and he shot 42.3% from 3-point range. Hammond and Adams both have the size to match up with him at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds and 6-foot-5 and 190 pounds, respectively, though neither was especially effective defensively last season.
Offensively, NC State looks built to launch from deep. This group should live behind the arc and, based on the roster numbers, could be even better than last year’s team, which ranked 28th nationally with 10.2 made 3-pointers per game.
The top five Wolfpack 3-point shooters from last season averaged 39.7% and hit 306 combined. This season’s projected top five averaged 40.5% and made 323, not including Darius Adams, who reportedly averaged 40% during summer workouts and has been shooting well in fall practice.
The starting lineup appears mostly settled, with one spot still up for grabs. The guess here is Edmead starts at point guard, McNeil on the wing, Lubin at forward and Evans at center.
The shooting guard spot looks like the swing piece between Hammond and Adams, and both should see plenty of time regardless of who gets the nod first. The one who doesn’t start may be the first guard off the bench.
How the game finishes could be just as revealing. RJ Keene keeps getting described as the guy who does the right thing at the right time, and Gainey has talked about him as the kind of player you want on the floor when the game gets tight.
He may also be NC State’s best backcourt defender. If he is part of the late-game plan, though, the question becomes simple: who comes out for him?
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