Vanderbilt has become one of the sport’s quickest turnarounds, but the hard part starts now.
A program that went 2-10 in 2023 and then surged to 10-3 last season has changed its ceiling in a hurry, and Diego Pavia was the catalyst. In just two years, he helped turn the Commodores from an also-ran into a team that could start talking about a playoff bid. That kind of leap is rare, and it leaves Vanderbilt with a different challenge in 2026: proving the rise was more than a one-year flash.
That’s where the pressure shifts from surprise to sustainability. The Commodores have spent enough to try to keep this thing rolling, but the real test is whether they can convert last year’s momentum into better recruiting, a steadier roster, and a new baseline for the program. If they can get through this transition year with a respectable finish, that would say a lot about the floor they’ve built.
This season has already shown how tricky that can be. Vanderbilt has stumbled several times against weak competition, and the roster churn is obvious.
The Commodores rank last in the SEC and 106th nationally in returning production. On offense alone, they lost three of their top four receivers and several starting offensive linemen.
Even in the portal era, that’s a lot to absorb.
Last season’s offense was electric, averaging more than seven yards per play against SEC opponents and finishing fifth nationally in SP+. The preseason projection was optimistic again, but early signs point to a unit that’s already feeling the strain of all that turnover.
The quarterback situation was the first major decision, and last weekend appears to have settled it. Blue chip freshman Jared Curtis is now set to take over, and that should at least stop the back-and-forth that can slow a young offense’s growth.
He’s a talented player who can hurt defenses with his arm and his legs, but the question is how quickly the game starts to slow down for him. NC State is also a meaningful jump in competition.
There are pieces around him worth leaning on. Vanderbilt brought back its top two running backs from 2025, which is no small thing.
Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young combined for 981 yards and 17 touchdowns on just 151 carries last fall. But the ground game didn’t look nearly as sharp against Delaware, the only FBS opponent on the schedule so far.
The Commodores managed only 100 rushing yards on 38 carries, and that’s not the kind of support a freshman quarterback wants to live with. If that performance is a sign of what’s ahead, Curtis’ growth becomes even more important.
For now, the offensive outlook is shaky. The hope is that Curtis eventually opens up more explosive playmaking as he gets comfortable, because he clearly has that kind of ability.
The defense has been more encouraging, though it comes with one major concern: too many explosive plays allowed. That may be tied to a unit that had plenty to replace, especially up front, but there is still something real to work with here.
Vanderbilt has been strong against the run and should have confidence that trait can hold against better teams, even if not at quite this level. The pass rush has shown teeth too, with 16 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, and that kind of disruption is a positive sign regardless of opponent.
NC State should provide another useful measuring stick, though it comes with its own uncertainty. The Wolfpack have plenty to answer for after the UVA game, and Richmond didn’t reveal much. So both teams enter this one with questions, and another difficult road test should tell us a lot more about where NC State stands.
In Other News...
Paul McNeil Could Decide How Good This NC State Team Becomes
Paul McNeils decision to stay put gives NC State another proven scorer heading into the new season, and it may end up being one of the most important roster choices on the board. Entering his third year with the Wolfpack, he turned down offers from other schools after a breakout stretch that included a program-record number of made three-pointers in a season and a 47-point double-double in the Heritage game.
What makes McNeil so intriguing is that his offensive ceiling is already obvious, but his next step may determine how far this team can go. Coach Gainey will spend plenty of time trying to sharpen the defensive side of McNeils game, and if that growth comes along, NC State could have far more than just a dangerous shooter. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Faces A Tricky SEC Test With Two New Problems
NC State heads to Nashville this weekend facing more than just a nonconference opponent, with the Wolfpack set to take on Vanderbilt in punishing conditions. The forecast calls for a high of 97 degrees and a RealFeel of 104, the kind of early-season heat that can affect tempo, rotations and how aggressively both sides can push the game plan.
Clark Lea added another wrinkle when he announced freshman quarterback Jared Curtis will start for Vanderbilt after his strong showing off the bench in the previous game. Dave Doeren has already acknowledged Curtiss ability and said NC State has been preparing for the challenge of containing him, giving the Wolfpack a different kind of SEC test before the game even kicks off. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Faces An Uncomfortable Rematch With A Familiar Enemy
Lyndon Coopers path has circled back to a place NC State fans know well, and this time the former starting left guard will be lining up for Vanderbilt against his old team. Cooper spent time as a key piece up front for the Wolfpack before moving on, and the matchup now brings a little extra familiarity to a game that already carries enough attention for both sides. His recent history only adds to the intrigue, including a win over NC State last season while he was at Pittsburgh.
For NC State, the meeting is less about nostalgia than the awkward reality of seeing a former starter across the line of scrimmage. Coopers current role at Vanderbilt gives him a fresh chance to make his presence felt in a game with some personal history attached, while head coach Dave Doeren has chosen not to revisit the subject of Coopers time with the program ahead of kickoff. The storyline is clear enough even without extra commentary, and it gives this rematch a little more edge than your usual nonconference date. [Read more 🡒]