NC State heads to Nashville on Saturday with a chance to do something the betting line says it shouldn’t: beat Vanderbilt on the road as a 3-point underdog at DraftKings.
And yet, a few national outlets are leaning the Wolfpack’s way anyway.
RotoWire, Covers and CBS Sports all have NC State winning outright and covering. The rest of the board tilts toward Vanderbilt, but not without some hesitation. That split makes this one feel less like a consensus pick and more like a genuine toss-up with two teams carrying different kinds of questions into the matchup.
RotoWire is taking the Wolfpack and putting a lot of weight on Vanderbilt’s run game, or lack of one. The outlet also sees CJ Bailey as the steadier quarterback compared with Jared Curtis, who is set to make his first career start for the Commodores.
“Maybe Jared Curtis getting all the snaps improves the Commodores, but I’m very much in the prove-it camp here. You can say the same for NC State, who got bullied at UVA to open the year.
But Vanderbilt doesn’t have those 25-year-old offensive linemen the Cavaliers did. They’re averaging 3.8 ypc against Austin Peay and Delaware.
With no sustained rushing attack, Curtis is likely to struggle, and CJ Bailey is the far more proven commodity. I like the Wolfpack to win straight up.”
Covers is on the same side, backing NC State to pull the upset after Vanderbilt’s first two games left plenty of doubt despite the 2-0 record. The Wolfpack’s opener was ugly, but the response was emphatic.
“NC State entered the season with plenty of hype, including from yours truly, but got absolutely smoked by Virginia 34-8 in Week 0. The Wolf Pack bounced back in a big way, crushing Richmond 73-0 in Week 2.
Now, they head to Nashville to take on a Vanderbilt team that has yet to impress. The Commodores beat Austin Peay 28-9 before narrowly beating Delaware 35-26 as 20.5-point favorites.
Vanderbilt was nearly outgained by Delaware, needing six sacks and two interceptions to escape with the win. I’m backing NC State to bounce back from its loss to Virginia and take down the Commodores on the road.”
CBS Sports makes it three national outlets siding with NC State, and it points to the same key wrinkle: Curtis stepping in for his first collegiate start against a Wolfpack defense that just posted a shutout, even if it came against FCS opponent Richmond.
“It didn’t take long for Vanderbilt to switch quarterbacks. Jared Curtis has a dazzling reputation, but he is fresh out of high school and will confront an NC State defense that just pitched a shutout, albeit against FCS member Richmond.
The Commodores have fought through fog so far, downing Austin Peay and Delaware by a combined 28 points. The Wolfpack have navigated a tougher schedule, opening with a setback at nationally ranked Virginia.”
Still, the bulk of the prediction market is going with Vanderbilt.
Yahoo Sports has the Commodores winning 24-17. College Football News likes Vanderbilt 27-23. numberFire gives Vanderbilt a 65.5% win probability.
Dimers has it 28-24 for the Commodores. SportsGambler says Vanderbilt covers the 3.5 points, while BetMGM gives Vanderbilt a 54.5% chance to cover 3.5 points.
ESPN Analytics is the most confident of the group, putting Vanderbilt at 68.8% to win.
So the split is real. The game-pick outlets see enough issues on the Vanderbilt side to believe NC State can walk out of Nashville with a win. The projection models are much colder on the Wolfpack.
That leaves both teams entering Saturday with something to prove. NC State’s first two outings were as different as they could be, a 34-8 loss at Virginia followed by a 73-0 rout of Richmond. Vanderbilt has stayed unbeaten, but the résumé hasn’t been especially convincing, with a 28-9 win over Austin Peay and a 35-26 comeback against Delaware after trailing at halftime.
Now the Commodores are handing the offense to Curtis, the highest-rated recruit in program history, for his first start.
In Other News...
Paul McNeil Could Decide How Good This NC State Team Becomes
Paul McNeils decision to stay put gives NC State another proven scorer heading into the new season, and it may end up being one of the most important roster choices on the board. Entering his third year with the Wolfpack, he turned down offers from other schools after a breakout stretch that included a program-record number of made three-pointers in a season and a 47-point double-double in the Heritage game.
What makes McNeil so intriguing is that his offensive ceiling is already obvious, but his next step may determine how far this team can go. Coach Gainey will spend plenty of time trying to sharpen the defensive side of McNeils game, and if that growth comes along, NC State could have far more than just a dangerous shooter. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Faces A Tricky SEC Test With Two New Problems
NC State heads to Nashville this weekend facing more than just a nonconference opponent, with the Wolfpack set to take on Vanderbilt in punishing conditions. The forecast calls for a high of 97 degrees and a RealFeel of 104, the kind of early-season heat that can affect tempo, rotations and how aggressively both sides can push the game plan.
Clark Lea added another wrinkle when he announced freshman quarterback Jared Curtis will start for Vanderbilt after his strong showing off the bench in the previous game. Dave Doeren has already acknowledged Curtiss ability and said NC State has been preparing for the challenge of containing him, giving the Wolfpack a different kind of SEC test before the game even kicks off. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Faces An Uncomfortable Rematch With A Familiar Enemy
Lyndon Coopers path has circled back to a place NC State fans know well, and this time the former starting left guard will be lining up for Vanderbilt against his old team. Cooper spent time as a key piece up front for the Wolfpack before moving on, and the matchup now brings a little extra familiarity to a game that already carries enough attention for both sides. His recent history only adds to the intrigue, including a win over NC State last season while he was at Pittsburgh.
For NC State, the meeting is less about nostalgia than the awkward reality of seeing a former starter across the line of scrimmage. Coopers current role at Vanderbilt gives him a fresh chance to make his presence felt in a game with some personal history attached, while head coach Dave Doeren has chosen not to revisit the subject of Coopers time with the program ahead of kickoff. The storyline is clear enough even without extra commentary, and it gives this rematch a little more edge than your usual nonconference date. [Read more 🡒]