Last week’s batch of bold calls landed more often than not, and this week’s slate offers a fresh round of swings. Three of the four predictions from the first weekend of October came through: Missouri rolled Florida, Jeremiah Smith went off for 11 catches, 206 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa, and Minnesota took back the Little Brown Jug. BYU also got the win, though not by the blowout margin that was forecast.
Now comes another crack at the weekend ahead, with the same no-safety-net approach.
Start with the two road favorites sitting at 7.5 points: Indiana at Nebraska and Texas in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. Both matchups carry just enough wiggle room for a weird result, and both opponents are unranked, which only sharpens the upset watch.
Nebraska’s case is built on the idea that Matt Rhule’s team keeps getting underrated; ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the Cornhuskers at No. 12 in SP+. Oklahoma’s argument comes from the other side of the ball, with a defense ranked No. 2 in the SEC by yardage ready to bother a Texas offense that sits No. 12 in the league by that same measure.
Penn State gets the White Out treatment, but the bigger question is whether the Nittany Lions have actually shown their best version yet in year one under Matt Campbell. The defense, in particular, still feels like it has more to give.
Yes, the 413 yards allowed to Northwestern last Friday made noise, but Penn State also held Wisconsin to 120, and that’s the number worth leaning on. If the Wildcats outing really was the outlier, the Nittany Lions should be able to handle Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava well enough to keep control.
That sets up a much-needed rebound chance for Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht against a USC defense that should be vulnerable. Becht has had two rough weeks, but this looks like the kind of spot where he can reset. The call here is three touchdown passes, plus an interception and a fumble, with Penn State surviving a messy one 35-21.
One prediction doesn’t try to hide what it is: a record is in real danger. Sheppard enters the week as the nation’s third-leading rusher, and he draws the ACC’s worst run defense in Georgia Tech, which is giving up 189 yards a game on the ground.
The weather only adds to the setup, with remnants of Hurricane Isaias expected to bring rain to Atlanta and make the passing game harder to lean on. Duke running back Mataeo Durant owns the school’s single-game rushing record at 255 yards against Charlotte in 2021, but that mark is in jeopardy here.
The forecast is Sheppard topping it and becoming part of FBS’s 10th 300-yard rushing game of the decade.
The final call goes to NC State, a team that has already taken the long road back from two brutal early losses - a blowout at Virginia on Aug. 29 and a last-second collapse against Vanderbilt on Sept. 19.
That kind of start can flatten a season, but the Wolfpack’s win over Louisville last Saturday was enough to register as a surprise and shift the mood. Against Wake Forest, that momentum should matter.
NC State’s defense is still a mess - 89th in scoring - but the offenses in this rivalry matchup are close enough that the game could come down to details, and the weather should help keep things tight. Quarterback CJ Bailey has thrown an interception in three straight games, but this time the prediction is that he avoids the turnover.
The Wolfpack also lean on backup quarterback Will Wilson, who has six rushing touchdowns, as a useful complement. Put it together and NC State walks away with a 24-17 win.
In Other News...
NC States Early Formula Is Suddenly Looking A Lot More Real
NC States 31-28 win over Louisville did more than get the Wolfpack to 3-2 and off the ACC schneid in 2026. It also gave a sharper look at the early formula that has started to take shape around this team, with the updated conference rankings showing where a few of the Packs key pieces are stacking up through the first stretch of league play. CJ Bailey, Duke Scott, Keenan Jackson, Will Wilson, Preston Douglas and kicker Kanoah Vinesett all have a place in that early ACC picture, which is part of what makes the win feel a little more meaningful than a one-off upset.
The bigger question now is how sustainable that formula will be as the schedule keeps moving, especially with the next test already looming. Vinesetts reliability has become a real part of the conversation after his perfect day against Louisville, and the offense has enough different contributors to suggest this group can keep hanging around if the pieces stay in place. The only catch is that the Wolfpack are heading into a week where availability and depth matter just as much as the rankings, which leaves the next step in this reset feeling a lot more important than the standings might otherwise suggest. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Faces A Defining ACC Test With Momentum On The Line
NC State heads into a pivotal ACC matchup with Wake Forest carrying real momentum and a home-field edge it has protected all season. Both teams have been playing well, which is what gives this one extra weight beyond the usual conference date. The Wolfpack have had to manage injuries along the way, but they have still handled business in Raleigh and now face a test that should say plenty about where they stand in the league picture.
Wake Forest brings enough recent success to make this more than just a spot-the-better-team kind of game, and the setup suggests a tight one from the start. For NC State, the stakes are simple: keep the home run going, stay steady through the injury issues and keep its place in a crowded ACC race from slipping. A win would say plenty about the Wolfpacks staying power, while a stumble would make the path ahead much less forgiving. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Has New Life On Offense Before A Rivalry Test
NC State heads into its matchup with Wake Forest with a little more confidence on offense after watching CJ Bailey settle in and steer the unit with more poise. The quarterback has given the Wolfpack a steadier foundation, and the presence of Will Wilson as a threat adds another layer to an attack that looked far less comfortable just a week ago. Against a rival that knows how to make games messy, that kind of calm matters.
The challenge now is whether that progress holds up when the Wolfpack face a Wake Forest team that can punish any lapse in space or discipline. NC States defensive structure, with Harvey Dyson III helping set the tone at linebacker, gives the group a chance to stay organized, but the margin for error remains small. For the Wolfpack, the offenses renewed life only matters if the defense can avoid giving the Demon Deacons extra openings. [Read more 🡒]