NC State Opens ACC Play Against Wake Forest: Five Key Storylines to Watch
It’s go time in Raleigh.
NC State tips off its ACC schedule against Wake Forest today at noon on ESPN2, and while it’s only the first conference game on the calendar, the implications feel heavier. This isn’t just about starting league play on the right foot-it’s about maintaining momentum during a stretch of games the Wolfpack can’t afford to let slip.
The good news? They’re trending in the right direction.
Let’s break it down.
NC State’s Efficiency Metrics Are Quietly Elite
Over the last four games, NC State’s offense hasn’t just been good-it’s been borderline elite. Their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) has averaged 125.8 during that stretch.
For context, Alabama leads the nation in AdjO at 131.8. If you isolate NC State’s last four games and treat them like a full season, that 125.8 would rank 6th nationally.
And it’s not just the offense. The defense has been just as stingy.
According to Torvik, the Pack’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) sits at 81.4 during that same span. That’s not just strong-it’s elite.
Michigan currently leads the country in AdjD at 90, and NC State’s recent stretch has been even better than that.
Since Will Wade took over, NC State’s season-long AdjD sits at 91.16. Only one team in the country-again, Michigan-has a better full-season mark.
So yes, the numbers back it up: NC State is playing high-level basketball on both ends of the floor. But numbers don’t win games.
Execution does. And now, with ACC play underway, it’s about sustaining that level of play when the stakes get higher.
1. How Will Both Teams Handle the Long Layoff?
The Wolfpack went into their 10-day holiday break on a high note, dismantling Ole Miss 76-62 in a game that honestly felt even more lopsided than the score suggests. NC State jumped out to a 45-26 halftime lead, and their defense was suffocating.
Ole Miss couldn’t get into any kind of rhythm, and the ESPN broadcast crew didn’t hold back in criticizing the Rebels’ lack of fight. But here’s the thing: that fight might’ve been smothered by NC State’s defensive pressure.
Wade used that game to experiment with lineups, giving extended minutes to players he later suggested wouldn’t see much action moving forward unless they cleaned things up-a bit of a “Christmas present,” as he called it.
Wake Forest, on the other hand, limps into this one after getting blown out by 31 points at home to #13 Vanderbilt. The Deacs have had time to regroup, but NC State has the edge in momentum, and in basketball, it’s often easier to keep rolling than to restart the engine.
2. NC State’s Defensive Game Plan: Slow Down Juke Harris
Circle this name: Juke Harris.
The 6’7” sophomore is the engine of Wake Forest’s offense, and he’s having a breakout season. Averaging 20 points per game while shooting 34% from three, Harris is a high-volume, high-confidence scorer.
He’s attempted fewer than 10 shots in a game only twice all year-and even then, he still took nine. He’s scored in double figures in every game and has hit at least one three in all but one outing.
He’s not beating teams with elite athleticism or rim pressure. What makes Harris dangerous is his ability to create space, elevate, and knock down jumpers. He’s a tough shot-maker, and he doesn’t need much room.
Expect NC State to throw the kitchen sink at him. That likely means blitzing ball screens, forcing the ball out of his hands, and daring his teammates to make plays.
But even that doesn’t completely solve the problem. Harris moves well without the ball and has a knack for finding open pockets in the defense.
He doesn’t need to dominate the dribble to get his shots.
The challenge for NC State’s defenders? Stay locked in.
Stay attached. Don’t get caught ball-watching.
If you lose him for even a second, he’ll make you pay.
3. Can Darrion Williams Find His Rhythm Again?
Coming into the season, Darrion Williams was expected to be NC State’s go-to guy. Lately, though, he’s been a bit of a ghost offensively. He’s scored in single digits in three of the last four games, and while there’s been some quiet buzz about a lingering shoulder issue, head coach Will Wade hasn’t leaned on that as an excuse.
What Wade has been vocal about is effort-and when he talks about certain players needing to raise their intensity, fans can’t help but wonder if Williams is part of that message.
Now, with a 10-day reset behind him, this could be the perfect time for Williams to get back to being the player everyone expected. If he can find his rhythm, it adds another layer to an already dangerous NC State squad.
And if the Pack can be this good without him firing on all cylinders? That’s a scary thought for the rest of the ACC.
4. The Paul McNeil Jr. Factor
Here’s a little bonus storyline: Paul McNeil Jr. had his first breakout performance against Wake Forest last season. Sometimes, familiarity breeds confidence, and McNeil could be a sneaky X-factor in this one. If he finds his groove again, he gives Wade another weapon on the perimeter-and that’s the kind of depth that wins games in March.
5. It’s Winning Time
There’s no sugarcoating it-this is a stretch of games NC State needs to capitalize on. The numbers say they’re one of the hottest teams in the country.
The eye test backs it up. But now it’s about proving it in conference play, where scouting reports are tighter, possessions are more valuable, and margins are razor thin.
Wake Forest will be desperate to bounce back from a blowout loss. NC State will be looking to keep the train rolling. And at noon today, we’ll see which team is ready to hit the ground running.
Let’s play ball.