The non-conference slate is in the books, and let’s be honest - it didn’t exactly light the world on fire for NC State. The early-season swagger has cooled, and now the fanbase is left asking some tough questions.
There's no panic button being smashed just yet, and no one's calling the Will Wade hire a misstep - but the honeymoon phase is definitely over. The message around Wolfpack Nation is clear: the talk was loud, but the wins haven’t followed.
And if you brought that up to Wade himself? He’d probably agree - in unfiltered, Wade-style fashion.
But make no mistake: he’s not done building.
Two Key Players, Two Very Different Concerns
Coming into the season, Darrion Williams and Terrance Arceneaux were circled as major pieces for this team. Now, as we head into conference play, both are under the microscope - though for very different reasons.
Let’s start with Williams. Overall, he’s had solid moments.
But in the marquee matchup against Ole Miss - a game that felt like a must-win - he struggled. Defensively, he was pulled just two minutes in after multiple lapses, and offensively, he couldn’t buy a bucket.
That’s not the kind of performance you expect from a guy who should be stepping into a leadership role. He hasn’t yet taken over games when things get tight, and on the defensive end, the consistency just isn’t there.
That’s a concern, especially heading into the grind of ACC play.
Then there’s Arceneaux. Preseason hype had him pegged as one of the top 15 defenders in the country.
That’s not hyperbole - that’s what people inside the program were saying. But so far?
He’s only played in 10 of 13 games, and has logged 20+ minutes just twice. For a guy with elite athleticism - Wade has said multiple times that Arceneaux can do things nobody else on the roster can - this lack of impact is glaring.
Here’s the statistical drop-off:
| Season | Min | FG% | 3PT% | REB | AST | PTS |
|---|
| Houston (24-25) | 20.3 | 44.3% | 33.7% | 2.7 | 0.7 | 6.5 | | NC State (25-26) | 13.5 | 32.1% | 20% | 2.1 | 0.5 | 2.9 |
| Difference | -6.8 | -12.2% | -13.7% | -0.6 | -0.2 | -3.6 |
That’s a steep decline - in minutes, efficiency, and production across the board. Arceneaux’s shoulder has been a topic of conversation, but Wade has said it’s fine, and he looked physically capable in the Kansas game.
The bigger issue? He’s averaging more fouls per game than ever before.
That’s a red flag heading into ACC play, where opponents are going to target him early and often. He needs to stay on the floor and find his rhythm - fast.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Despite the uneven individual performances, the team metrics actually tell a more optimistic story - especially on the offensive end. According to KenPom:
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 22nd nationally
- Effective FG%: 19th
- 3P%: 17th
- Turnover %: 25th
- Non-Steal Turnover %: 23rd
That’s a top-25 offense by almost every meaningful metric. The ball is moving, the shots are falling, and they’re taking care of the rock. It’s not perfect - the free throw percentage sits at 58th, and the 2-point shooting is 48th - but it’s a strong offensive profile overall.
Defensively, the improvement since the Auburn game has been noticeable. The Pack now ranks 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, a solid jump.
But there’s one glaring hole: defending the three-point line. NC State ranks 356th - yes, near the absolute bottom - in opponent 3PA/FGA.
Teams are launching from deep at will, and that’s a problem that needs fixing before ACC sharpshooters come to town.
Tournament Picture: Still Strong
According to Bart Torvik’s model, NC State has a 93.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament, with a projected 6.6 seed. That’s encouraging - but there’s a catch.
Torvik’s algorithm includes a “FUN” score (Fortune/Failure Unexplained by Numbers), which essentially measures how lucky or unlucky a team has been. NC State ranks 318th in FUN.
KenPom has a similar metric called “Luck,” and the Pack sit at 336th. In other words: the models like the team, but the breaks haven’t gone their way.
NET Rankings and Resume Outlook
Wins over VCU and Liberty should age well, especially if both teams go on to win their conferences and punch NCAA tickets. But in terms of the NET, those wins won’t move the needle much.
What will? The ACC schedule - which looks stronger than expected this year - and offers plenty of chances to rack up Quadrant 1 and 2 wins.
What’s Ahead
The path forward is favorable - especially in January, where the Pack will face just one Quadrant 4 opponent (Georgia Tech). The rest of the month includes Q3 matchups against Boston College, Florida State, Stanford, and Syracuse. These are games NC State should win - and needs to win - to stay on track.
February, though? That’s where the resume can really take shape.
Four Q1 games and three Q2s are on the docket. That’s the month where this team can prove it belongs in the top tier of the ACC and lock in a tournament bid.
March brings two key games: Duke - always a Q1 opportunity, and Stanford, currently a Q3 team but with time to climb. Both are at home. That’s a chance to make a final statement before Selection Sunday.
Final Word
Will Wade said it best:
“At the end of the day, we’ve got to start winning some of these games.”
The metrics are promising. The talent is there.
But the clock is ticking. If NC State wants to turn preseason expectations into postseason reality, it starts now - with Williams stepping up, Arceneaux turning the corner, and the defense tightening up where it matters most.
The conference grind is here. Time to show what this team is really made of.