Week 2 brought a fresh round of shakeups in ESPN’s FPI, and not all of them lined up neatly with the scoreboard. Ohio State’s loss was enough to send the Buckeyes all the way to No. 1 in the ratings, but several other teams also saw major movement after the weekend.
Oklahoma State was one of the biggest winners. The Cowboys’ 39-31 upset of Oregon pushed them up nearly 20 spots, and ESPN now has them projected for six wins with a 1.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
That number may be a bit generous, but it marks a clear boost for Oklahoma State. Oregon, meanwhile, barely budged in the wrong direction, slipping just five spots.
NC State also got a sizable lift after its 73-0 win over Richmond. That result appears to have restored some faith in the Wolfpack after their rough Week 0 loss to Virginia. ESPN now projects NC State to six wins and gives it a 0.5% shot at the CFP.
Maryland made the biggest jump among Big Ten teams. The Terps climbed nearly a dozen spots after beating UConn 38-14. ESPN gives Maryland a 2.1% chance to reach the Playoff and a 69% shot at bowl eligibility, putting the Terps firmly in the middle of the conference pack.
Not every Big Ten team came out of Week 2 in good shape, though. Minnesota took a hit after a 38-13 home loss to Mississippi State and now sits with only Rutgers below it in the league’s FPI rankings. The Gophers have no shot at the Playoff and just a 21% chance of reaching six wins.
Washington is another team whose FPI number took a hit despite a 2-0 record. The Huskies’ 16-14 win over Utah State didn’t impress ESPN’s computers, and they dropped in a big way.
Washington is now 10th in the Big Ten, with a 2.3% shot at the Playoff and a 67.5% chance of becoming bowl eligible. It remains one of the lowest-ranked 2-0 power conference teams in the FPI.
Arkansas had the roughest slide of the bunch. The Razorbacks’ 43-10 loss to Utah sent them to the SEC cellar and near the bottom of all Power Four teams, with Rutgers the only team below them. ESPN gives Arkansas no chance at the Playoff and only a 2.3% shot at winning six games, with a 3-9 projection now in place.
In Other News...
NC States Next Three Games Will Test This Start Fast
NC States fast start got a boost with the win over Richmond, but the schedule is about to ask a lot more of the Wolfpack. Vanderbilt, Appalachian State and Louisville are lined up over the next stretch, and each brings a different kind of problem. Vanderbilt just beat Delaware, Appalachian State survived East Carolina despite a penalty-filled performance, and Louisville handled Villanova with ease, so this is the kind of run that should say more about NC State than an opening victory ever could.
For the Wolfpack, the timing matters as much as the opponents. The next few weeks will show whether that early momentum travels against better competition and whether the growing expectations around this start are built to last. A clean showing could make the Richmond win look like the first step in something real, while any slip would quickly turn the conversation toward how much margin NC State actually has. [Read more 🡒]
NC States Defensive Rotation Suddenly Created A New Role Battle
NC States lopsided 73-0 win over Richmond turned into a showcase for the depth on the defensive side, with 36 different players getting into the action. The rotation was deep enough to give several Wolfpack defenders either their first collegiate snaps or a new personal benchmark, and it also created a clearer look at how much competition is brewing for playing time beyond the top of the depth chart.
Brody Barnhardt ended up leading the defense with 32 snaps even though he did not start, a telling detail in a game that rewarded readiness more than pedigree. AJ Prim and Adrian Farrow were among the reserves who logged career highs, while Asaad Brown Jr. did not play and will be monitored heading into Vanderbilt, leaving a few more spots in that rotation very much up for grabs. [Read more 🡒]