November football wasted no time shaking up ESPN’s FPI ratings after Week 10, and the biggest swings came with some lopsided scores. Since FPI is driven by the numbers and not the eye test, it can produce some head-turning placements - like 9-0 UCLA sitting one spot ahead of 5-4 Florida, or 7-2 Kentucky landing four spots behind 5-4 Penn State. Week 10 added another layer of chaos.
The largest move in both directions came out of Oklahoma State’s 66-28 rout, a result that sent the Cowboys climbing while also creating the week’s biggest drop elsewhere. Even after the bump, Oklahoma State sits at 6-3 with only a 4.5% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Still, at fifth in the Big 12, the Cowboys may be one more statement win away from moving up, with Texas Tech currently second in the league at 14th.
Oklahoma also made a noticeable leap after its 23-7 win at Florida. That result pushed the Sooners into the middle of the SEC pack in FPI.
At 5-4, Oklahoma is out of the Playoff picture at 0.4%, but the win gives the Sooners an 86.6% chance to pick up one more victory and become bowl eligible. It’s not much, but in a season like this, it counts.
Duke’s 41-3 blowout of NC State moved the Blue Devils up a bit in the ACC hierarchy as well. The numbers still aren’t kind to Duke’s postseason hopes, though: even at 7-2, the Blue Devils have just a 1.1% shot at the Playoff. In the ACC, it still looks like Miami, maybe Wake, or bust.
Kansas State took one of the roughest hits of the week after an ugly 38-point loss dropped the Wildcats to just ahead of Colorado in the Big 12 basement. FPI now gives K-State only a 23% chance to get to six wins and bowl eligibility, and it doesn’t look great for either Kansas program making the postseason.
Kentucky also saw its standing slide after a 34-6 loss to Tennessee. FPI has not been especially high on this Wildcats team all year - it had Kentucky 26th when the CFP rankings placed them 6th - and the latest defeat brought another dip. Even so, FPI still slots Kentucky 12th in the SEC and gives the Wildcats a 36.5% chance at the College Football Playoff.
NC State’s 38-point loss to Duke sent the Wolfpack downward too, though they still have four ACC teams below them. At 4-5, FPI gives NC State just a 17.8% chance to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. With Dave Doeren already fired, that outcome isn’t exactly a shock.
In Other News...
NC State Is Taking A Huge Gamble On A Program Legend
NC State is leaning into nostalgia and risk at the same time, with Philip Rivers reportedly finalizing a deal to become the programs next head coach. The former Wolfpack quarterback and current high school coach would step into his first college coaching job after Dave Doeren was fired following the 2023 season, giving the school a headline move that ties its present to one of its most recognizable alumni.
Rivers arrival would also bring another layer of intrigue because his son, Gunner Rivers, is expected to join the Wolfpack as well. For NC State, the appeal is obvious: a program legend with deep ties to Raleigh, a built-in recruiting storyline and a fresh start after a coaching change. The question now is how that leap from high school sidelines to the college game will play out once the deal is complete. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Is Betting Big On Philip Rivers For One Reason
NC State appears ready to make one of the boldest coaching moves in the country, turning to Philip Rivers after firing Dave Doeren. The former Wolfpack quarterback and longtime NFL passer has been coaching high school football since 2021, and his name carries instant recognition in Raleigh because of what he meant to the program as a player and what he accomplished over a pro career that briefly included a return to the NFL last year.
The appeal goes beyond nostalgia, though. Rivers would arrive with no college coaching background, which makes the hire a major leap of faith, but NC State is clearly betting that his ties to the school can help steady the program and energize the next phase. One especially intriguing part of the picture is already in place for next season, giving the Wolfpack a family connection that only adds to the intrigue around this move. [Read more 🡒]
Philip Rivers Buzz Gives NC State Fans Hope And Plenty To Debate
The idea of Philip Rivers returning to Raleigh has given NC State fans something to talk about beyond the frustration of a difficult 2026 season. A former Wolfpack quarterback who went on to a long NFL career, Rivers has stayed close to football through high school coaching and even brief recent NFL comebacks, which only adds to the intrigue around a possible homecoming.
There is also a family angle that makes the speculation feel even more layered, with his son Gunner set to arrive at NC State as a freshman in 2027. For a fan base looking for a spark, the buzz around Rivers brings both hope and a fresh round of debate about what such a move would mean for the program's direction and identity. [Read more 🡒]