ESPN’s latest Power Four quarterback rankings delivered a harsh reality check for CJ Bailey.
Bill Connelly had the NC State quarterback at No. 16 nationally and No. 2 in the ACC back in March. Four games into the 2026 season, Bailey has slid to No. 41 overall and No. 10 in the conference - a drop of 25 spots nationally and eight within the ACC.
That kind of tumble doesn’t happen without a reason, even if the box score hasn’t been a total disaster.
Bailey has completed 74 of 110 passes for 893 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions through four games. He’s hitting 67.3% of his throws with a 148.0 passing efficiency rating. Those are workable numbers, but they haven’t matched the preseason buzz around a quarterback entering the year as a legitimate Preseason All-ACC candidate.
The deeper problem is how uneven the performances have been from week to week.
The opener at Virginia was rough from the jump. Bailey went 12 of 23 for 84 yards, didn’t throw a touchdown and was picked off once.
He also lost a fumble in the red zone, and his passing efficiency rating sat at 74.2. For a quarterback in his third season and second full year as NC State’s starter, it was a brutal way to open the year.
One week later, he looked like a different player against Richmond. Bailey completed 13 of 17 passes for 281 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a staggering 234.7 passing efficiency rating in NC State’s 73-0 win. But that came against an FCS opponent, and the expectation was never simply that he could dominate Richmond.
The real test was always going to be what he did against stronger competition, especially away from home.
At Vanderbilt, Bailey posted solid numbers: 25 of 37 for 275 yards and three touchdowns, with a 151.4 passing efficiency rating. Still, that game will be remembered for the finish.
With NC State up 31-28 and six seconds left, Bailey tried to run out the clock on fourth down. Vanderbilt tackled him, recovered the fumble in the end zone with one second remaining, and completed an almost unimaginable comeback.
He also threw an interception earlier in the game, which only added to the sting.
Against Appalachian State, the production was again respectable. Bailey finished 24 of 33 for 253 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, good for a 151.1 passing efficiency rating in a 41-31 NC State win.
But even there, the Wolfpack couldn’t fully put the game away after building a three-score lead. NC State led 28-7 late in the first half before Appalachian State eventually tied it at 31 in the fourth quarter, and the Wolfpack had to score the final 10 points to escape.
That’s the story so far: flashes of the talent, but not enough consistency.
Bailey’s 60.4 PFF grade ranks 15th among qualifying ACC quarterbacks, and his raw stats place him in the back half of the league in several categories: 11th in passing yards, 8th in completion percentage, tied for 9th in passing touchdowns, 9th in passing efficiency and 15th in PFF grade among quarterbacks with 90 or more snaps.
None of that means the season is lost. NC State has eight games left in the regular season, and Bailey still has time to reset the conversation.
The arm talent is there. The big-time throws are there.
The stretches of high-level play are there, too.
What hasn’t shown up enough in 2026 is sustained consistency against the best competition.
That makes Saturday a big one. NC State hosts Louisville at Carter-Finley Stadium at 3:30 p.m. as an underdog, giving Bailey another chance to change the narrative against an ACC opponent. If he’s going to climb back toward the level Connelly had him at in March, games like this will matter a whole lot more than what he did against Richmond.
In Other News...
NC States QB Commit Is Suddenly Worth Watching Again
A quiet stretch around NC States 2027 quarterback commit may be ending just as quickly as it began. Gunner Rivers, one of the more closely watched high school passers in the class, has been out since Week 1 with a lower-body injury, but his father and coach, Philip Rivers, said the recovery is moving in the right direction and that the young quarterback has started running again.
There is still no firm timeline for when Gunner Rivers will play again, which leaves the situation open-ended for now. Even so, the fact that he is back to running at least gives the Wolfpack another reason to keep tabs on a recruit whose development has been paused for most of the season, with a return for the final games now something both sides are hoping could happen. [Read more 🡒]
Dave Doeren Sends NC State Fans A Clear Louisville Challenge
Dave Doeren spent part of his media session this week talking about the kind of details that tend to matter in November, from tweaks to NC States practice schedule to the importance of staying locked in from one snap to the next. He also pointed to the Wolfpacks steady improvement over the season, a reminder that this group has been trying to stack small gains while preparing for another big home opportunity at Carter-Finley Stadium.
The bigger message, though, was aimed squarely at Saturdays atmosphere. Doeren made clear that Louisville is walking into what he sees as the Cardinals first true road test of the season, and he wants NC State fans to make the environment count with noise and energy from the opening whistle. For a team trying to protect home field and keep building momentum, the crowd could be every bit as important as the matchup itself. [Read more 🡒]
NC State Heads Into Louisville With One Big Line Concern
NC State heads to Louisville still dealing with the same issue it carried into the last two weeks along the offensive front, with starting center Spike Sowells Jr. set to miss a third straight game. Teague Andersen has held up in his place and even picked up ACC Offensive Lineman of the Week honors, giving the Wolfpack some stability at a spot that usually doesnt get much spotlight unless things are going wrong.
The matchup also comes with some uncertainty on the other sideline, where Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz is listed as questionable and both teams have a handful of players tagged out, doubtful or questionable. For NC State, though, the bigger question remains how well the line can keep functioning without its usual starter, especially with a road trip that could hinge on how cleanly the offense handles the middle of the line. [Read more 🡒]