After dropping back-to-back games to divisional rivals Boston and Buffalo, the Canadiens looked like they were heading into a brutal stretch. With matchups against Vegas, Colorado, and another round with Buffalo on tap, expectations were understandably tempered. But if there’s one thing this Habs team has shown, it’s that they don’t back down from a challenge - especially when the opponent is red-hot.
Montreal responded in a big way, sweeping all six available points from their next three games. And they didn’t just win - they kept Buffalo from earning any loser points in the process, a small but meaningful edge in a tight playoff race. That brought this season’s series with the Sabres to an even 2-2 split, and if the trajectory of both teams holds, we might be looking at the early stages of a rivalry that defines the Atlantic Division for years to come.
A huge part of this bounce-back? Jakub Dobeš.
The rookie netminder posted a .928 save percentage across those three wins, providing the kind of stability in net that can change the tone of a season. His performance gave the Habs the confidence to play their game - fast, aggressive, and opportunistic - even against some of the league’s best.
Statistically, Montreal is holding steady in most areas compared to their season averages. But one area of improvement is clear: faceoffs.
Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens have been significantly better in the circle, and the addition of Phillip Danault is already paying dividends. Danault’s return to Montreal brought more than just a familiar face - it brought elite faceoff prowess and veteran savvy that’s starting to rub off on the rest of the group.
That said, the penalty kill hasn’t caught up yet. Danault and Jake Evans are both strong defensive forwards, but chemistry on special teams takes time.
Reps, familiarity, and trust are key ingredients, and the Canadiens are still mixing the batter. The structure is there - now it’s about execution.
Looking at the advanced metrics from NHL Edge, there’s a bit of a statistical puzzle. Montreal’s penalty kill ranks 27th in the league at 77%, but the underlying zone time numbers suggest they should be doing better.
The Habs spend just 56.6% of their shorthanded time in the defensive zone - sixth-best in the NHL - and lead the league in neutral zone time at 18.2%. For comparison, the Blackhawks boast an 85% success rate while spending slightly more time in their own zone (58.0%) and less in the neutral zone (14.9%).
So what’s the difference? Goaltending.
Chicago’s save percentage while shorthanded is .895. Montreal’s is .830.
It’s a stark reminder that even with good structure and puck pressure, the penalty kill lives and dies by the man between the pipes. And that’s where Dobeš’ continued development could be a game-changer down the stretch.
Zooming out, the Canadiens are 14 points ahead of where they were at this point last season. They didn’t hit 69 points until Game 65 last year - this year, they’re already there after 55. That’s a tangible sign of progress, and it’s keeping them above the playoff cut-off line for now.
The timing couldn’t be better. Florida, one of their closest challengers, has a tough slate ahead with games against Buffalo, Boston, and Tampa Bay.
That’s a win-win for Montreal - no matter who comes out on top, someone’s dropping points. It gives the Habs a chance to regroup and gear up for the final push in March.
In the Atlantic, the top five (minus Detroit) are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Florida’s slipping, and while Toronto managed a solid road trip out west, they’ve only won five of their last 13 - not the kind of consistency you need in a playoff chase.
Meanwhile, Ottawa is starting to stir. The return of Linus Ullmark has stabilized their crease, and they’ve won five of their last six.
The Senators have been playing solid hockey all year, but their goaltending has been a major liability. If Ullmark can find his form, they could make things interesting.
Still, it’s a steep climb. Ottawa needs to close a six-point gap just to reach the playoff line, and they’ll need to play at a .710 pace the rest of the way to hit 100 points - a mark that might be necessary with Boston on pace for 99 as the second Wild Card team.
That means the Sens would need to collect 37 of the remaining 52 points on their schedule. Not impossible, but far from easy.
For the Canadiens, the focus now shifts to maintaining momentum, tightening up the penalty kill, and continuing to ride the hot hand in net. If they can keep stacking wins and stay ahead of the chaos below them, this could be the year they finally punch their ticket back to the postseason.