No. 7 Texas and No. 18 Missouri meet Saturday in Columbia with both teams sitting at 6-2 and trying to keep their College Football Playoff hopes from slipping away.
It’s the first SEC showdown between the Longhorns and Tigers, and Missouri has plenty of momentum at Faurot Field. The Tigers have already handled Florida and Texas A&M at home in convincing fashion, and since 2023 they are 13-3 against league opponents in Columbia. That home edge has mattered, and Missouri has shown both sides of its profile over the last month.
The high point came in the 45-17 rout of Florida on Oct. 3, when the Gators arrived ranked No. 8 in the AP poll and left looking nothing like a playoff contender. The low point followed in a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss on Oct.
- Missouri bounced back after its bye with a 34-10 win over Arkansas in Week 9, a result that suggested the Tigers are back on steadier ground.
Texas comes in with a different kind of pressure. The Longhorns have won their last two games, beating Ole Miss and Mississippi State, but the offense still hasn’t matched the preseason buzz around a team that spent four weeks at No. 1 earlier this season. That puts a spotlight on quarterback Arch Manning, because if Texas is going to live up to expectations, the breakthrough has to come soon.
Injuries are also stacking up for Texas. Wide receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are both questionable, with Wingo dealing with a quad injury and Coleman working through a shoulder issue.
They’ve each played in all eight games and together have caught 11 of Manning’s 15 touchdown passes. Edge rusher Collin Simmons is also questionable after missing the last two games with an ankle injury.
Missouri’s injury report, by comparison, is nearly clean.
The Tigers also got a boost last week with Ahmad Hardy making his 2026 debut against Arkansas. He carried twice in that game after recovering from a gunshot wound.
Missouri’s backfield already had the SEC’s leading rusher in Jamal Roberts, who became the conference’s first player to top 1,000 yards this season. Roberts ran for 138 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against Arkansas, and he had gone over 200 yards in wins over Florida and Texas A&M.
Still, Texas has been stingy against the run, as no team has averaged more than four yards per carry against the Longhorns.
The playoff math is clear for both sides. Texas would see its CFP chances rise to 67.5% with a win, according to the CBS Sports CFB Forecaster, while a loss would drop those odds to 22.8%.
If the Longhorns lose, they’d need to run the table against LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M to have a shot at the 12-team field as a three-loss team. Missouri’s outlook would climb to 16.1% with a win, but a loss would knock those hopes down to 1.6%.
The Tigers finish with Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma.
Texas’ defense is the best unit in this matchup, and that’s the side that should tilt things. Even if Simmons remains out, the Longhorns have the kind of swarming front that can make life difficult for Missouri’s offense.
If Manning protects the ball the way he did last week, Texas can lean on its defense, control field position and force Missouri into uncomfortable spots. The Tigers have been strong at home, but Texas still has the edge in overall talent.
Pick: Texas -2.5
Saturday’s game is set for 12 p.m. ET at Faurot Field in Columbia, Missouri, and it will air on ESPN.
In Other News...
Ahmad Hardys Mizzou Return Came After A Comeback Few Saw Coming
Ahmad Hardys path back to the field for Missouri was anything but ordinary. Shot in the leg in May and forced into surgery that placed a metal rod in his femur, the running back spent months working through rehab before finally making it back for Halloween, when he took part in the Tigers win over Arkansas.
For a Missouri team that has leaned on toughness all season, Hardys return carried real weight beyond the box score. Eli Drinkwitz made clear how much the staff valued both the recovery itself and the way Hardy was able to contribute once he was back on the field, a reminder of how much had to go right just for this moment to happen. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzous 2027 Offense Just Got A Lot More Interesting
Missouris offensive outlook for 2027 got a major boost with Austin Simmons back in the fold, giving the Tigers a proven starting quarterback to build around as they keep shaping the roster for the future. Simmons arrived in Columbia after three seasons at Ole Miss and has already started eight games this season, enough to make him one of the most important pieces in Missouris long-range plans.
The arrangement still leaves some uncertainty, though, since his contract gives him the option to enter the 2027 NFL Draft if that path becomes available. Even so, Missouri now has a clearer picture at the most important position, and with several other skill-position players also eligible for 2027, the offense suddenly has a much more defined core to work with. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Just Got A Much Tougher SLU Problem Than Expected
What had looked like a straightforward early-season matchup for Missouri has suddenly become more complicated. St. Louis Circuit Court Judge Jason Sengheiser granted Robbie Avila an injunction that gives him a fifth year of eligibility and blocks the NCAA from using roster limits to keep him off the floor, and Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz confirmed Avila will be dressed and available for the Billikens upcoming game against Missouri.
For a Tigers team already preparing for a cross-town test, the timing matters. Avilas case mirrors that of Mark Mitchell, who also received a court allowance to return to the Saint Louis roster, adding another layer of uncertainty to a game that now carries a little more intrigue than expected. [Read more 🡒]