Bookmark it, print it, pin it to a bulletin board - however you want to store the receipts, do it now. Missouri football is about to kick off a new season, and the predictions are already on the table.
The Tigers open Thursday, Sept. 3 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Faurot Field, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. on SEC Network. And with that looming, it’s time to put some numbers and names on what 2026 might look like for Eli Drinkwitz’s team.
At quarterback, Austin Simmons is the swing piece. The southpaw transfer from Ole Miss has the arm to stretch the field, and there’s a real belief he can push Missouri’s passing game into a different gear. He should join a short list of Mizzou quarterbacks who have averaged more than 200 passing yards per game, according to Sports Reference.
But the upside comes with some risk. Fall camp chatter has pointed to turnover issues, and the numbers back up the concern a little.
Simmons owns a career TD:INT ratio of 6:5, and with 107 career passing attempts, his interception rate sits at 4.7%. For comparison, Pribula posted a 3.3% interception rate last season.
Missouri fans may love plenty of what Simmons brings through the air. They may also have to ride out a few rough patches.
The ground game, though, looks built to hit hard. There’s a real path for two 1,000-yard rushers, even with uncertainty around Hardy’s return.
As of Friday, Aug. 28, he was not expected to play in the opener, and unless he practiced Friday, he was trending toward missing the Week 2 matchup with Kansas. Drinkwitz has said Hardy needs two weeks of full-go reps before being considered ready.
Still, the projection here is that both Jamal Roberts and Hardy can get there. Roberts could pile up yards early if he handles the bulk of the carries, and Hardy already proved he can clear the mark, doing it in his ninth game for Missouri last season. The last SEC team to do it with two backs was Georgia in 2018, when D’Andre Swift finished with 1,049 yards and Elijah Holyfield had 1,018.
Missouri also gets the nod to knock off one preseason top-10 team. The schedule gives the Tigers five chances against teams ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll top 10: Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
Home dates against Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M are the best bets on paper, but the Longhorns look daunting and Missouri has had trouble with the Aggies. That leaves Oklahoma as the pick.
There are a few preseason superlatives worth handing out, too. Tristan Wilson gets the nod as most improved player after earning the starting left guard job in his fifth year.
Cayden Lee is the best transfer, with the Simmons-Lee connection from Ole Miss expected to pay off. Jayden McGregory is the best freshman, and the rookie from West Des Moines, Iowa, looks lined up for defensive snaps after a strong preseason.
As for All-SEC picks, the list goes: RB Ahmad Hardy, OT Cayden Green, LB Nicholas Rodriguez, LS Brett Le Blanc and WR Donovan Olugbode.
The stat projections are just as specific. Lee is pegged for 875 receiving yards, while Olugbode is expected to top 600 yards as the primary outside receiver.
Caleb Goodie is projected to lead the team in catches of 20 yards or more. In the red zone, Olugbode gets the touchdown edge with seven, and that would put him in rare company under Drinkwitz; only one Missouri receiver, Luther Burden III in 2023, has caught more than six touchdown passes in a season in this system.
On defense, Rodriguez is projected to lead the team with 85 tackles. He’s viewed as a force against the run and a reliable coverage linebacker, which makes him a natural fit to be around the ball constantly.
Darris Smith is the sack leader at 7.5, though Daeden Hopkins is one to watch in his second year on campus. At safety, Kensley Louidor-Faustin is projected to snag three interceptions, with his speed and STAR role giving him plenty of chances to jump routes.
Santana Banner and Trajen Greco were also described as pick-happy in camp.
And when it all shakes out, the record prediction lands at 7-5.
The thinking is straightforward: the SEC’s nine-game schedule is going to make 8-4 and 9-3 feel a lot tougher, and Missouri’s path is no exception. To reach nine regular-season wins, the Tigers would need to win every game they’re supposed to win, take every toss-up, and beat two preseason top-15 teams. That’s a brutal ask.
If a team gets through with one loss or none, it’s a top-four CFP seed. Missouri could still drop four games and finish as a top-20 team.
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For Missouri, the appeal is obvious enough to make the discussion feel less like wishful thinking and more like a real barometer of where the program is headed. Connellys breakdown credited the Tigers upside as part of a broader conversation about coaching stability and the kind of roster talent that can turn a good season into a historic one. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is right there in the same conversation, which is exactly why this kind of ranking tends to linger with fans long after the original list is published. [Read more 🡒]