Missouri has spent most of the Eli Drinkwitz era looking like the kind of SEC team that can make life miserable for just about anybody, and that’s why the quick-hit doom forecasts feel off. The Tigers have won at least six games every season since 2017 except the COVID year in 2020, when they went 5-5. So while a rough slide is possible, the idea that Missouri is automatically headed for a 4-8 or 5-7 season doesn’t line up with what this program has actually been.
This projection lands in a different place: 7-5.
The biggest swing factor is on defense, where Missouri has real production to replace. Losing Damon Wilson II to Miami hurts, and it hurts a lot.
He led the team with 9 sacks last season, and now Darris Smith has to take on a much bigger role as the lead edge rusher. That matters because the secondary is loaded with transfer players, which puts even more pressure on the front to get after the quarterback.
Missouri finished fifth in the SEC with 36 sacks in 2025, and matching that without Wilson and Langden Kitchen stepping up would be a tough ask.
The offense, though, should do enough to keep the Tigers in the mix. Austin Simmons is a confidence point at quarterback, Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts give Missouri a strong backfield pairing, and the receivers bring enough punch to make this group dangerous.
The offensive line also has a couple of studs. The question isn’t whether Missouri can score.
It’s whether the defense can hold up when the schedule turns sharp.
That schedule starts with a stretch that should get Missouri moving in the right direction. Arkansas-Pine Bluff comes to Columbia in Week 1, and there’s not much mystery there.
Even if Ahmad Hardy isn’t in the lineup, Jamal Roberts is expected to have a big night, and this one should be over by halftime. Then comes the trip to Kansas in Week 2, a game Missouri is not being picked to lose.
Road rivalry games can be tricky, but Missouri is viewed as the more talented team, especially with Kansas trying to settle in a new starting quarterback.
Week 3 brings Troy to Faurot Field, and while that’s the sort of Group of 6 opponent that can create headaches, Missouri is expected to handle it at home. The first real test of the early season comes in Week 4 at Mississippi State. Jeff Lebby has made the Bulldogs more competitive than they were under Zach Arnett, but this is also a game where Roberts and Hardy are expected to be a problem, especially if Hardy is back by then.
Then comes the one the Tigers seem to have circled: Florida at home in Week 5. In this projection, that’s the biggest game on the schedule.
Jon Sumrall’s Gators arrive in Columbia after starting 3-0 and then losing at Ole Miss in Week 4, and Missouri knows what’s coming next on the calendar. The offensive line turns in its best performance of the season, and the Tigers escape with a single-digit win.
The next two weeks bring the first losses. Texas A&M comes back to Faurot Field in Week 6 after beating Missouri 38-17 last year and 41-10 in 2024, and that recent history is hard to ignore.
The Aggies just seem to have Missouri’s number. Then comes the trip to Ole Miss in Week 7, where the Tigers run into a Rebels team that’s fully bought into its Playoff hopes.
Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are both expected to be rolling, and while Austin Simmons plays well in his return to Oxford, it isn’t enough.
Missouri reaches the bye at 5-2 and needs it after consecutive losses.
Coming out of the break, the Tigers are projected to get back on track at Arkansas. That rivalry has tilted heavily Missouri’s way, with four straight Battle Line wins and nine in the last 10. Ryan Silverfield should make the Razorbacks more competitive, but Missouri is still expected to leave with another victory.
The back half of the schedule gets much harder. Texas comes to Columbia in Week 10, and this is a matchup Missouri is not expected to win. Cam Coleman is projected to be too much for the Tigers’ defense, Ryan Wingo is expected to have a big day, and with Damon Wilson II gone, pressure on Arch Manning becomes a major issue.
Georgia at Georgia the following week is another loss. It’s not the kind of spot Missouri wants, especially coming right after Texas, and this projection says the Tigers would have a hard time there no matter what.
Kentucky at home in Week 12 is where Missouri gets win No. 7, with the Wildcats’ new hire of Will Stein not expected to pay off immediately. Cayden Lee, Donovan Olugbode and Naeshaun Montgomery are all expected to make noise in that one.
The regular season closes with Oklahoma in Week 13, and the Sooners are projected to be too much. That defense is described as stacked at all three levels, John Mateer is viewed as a Heisman contender after his strong start last season before injury, and Oklahoma could be fighting to lock up a Playoff spot. Missouri is expected to get handled in Columbia.
So the final call is 7-5 overall, 4-5 in SEC play. No Playoff run, no major breakthrough, but also no collapse. Missouri is projected to be exactly what it has been under Drinkwitz for much of this stretch: a team nobody wants to overlook, and a team that should still be sitting on the doorstep of bigger things.
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