The crazy thing about Missouri’s 2026 season is that the floor and ceiling both still feel alive.
Eli Drinkwitz said as much last week on David Pollack’s 'See Ball Get Ball' podcast: "We still have five weeks left," Missouri football coach Eli Drinkwitz said on David Pollack's 'See Ball Get Ball' podcast last week. "There's people out there thinking, 'Man, this team won't win another game.' I'm like, 'You just don't know.'
"It's going to be interesting."
He’s not wrong. With five games left, the Tigers sit in a weird and very real middle ground: 5-2 overall, 2-2 in SEC play, and No. 23 in the latest AP Top-25. The first College Football Playoff rankings arrive Tuesday, Nov. 3, and from there the picture should get even messier.
Missouri’s path begins this Saturday at Arkansas at 6:45 p.m. CT on SEC Network.
After that comes a home date with No. 11 Texas on Nov. 7 at 11 a.m.
CT, a trip to No. 3 Georgia on Nov. 14, a home game against No.
9 Kentucky on Nov. 21, and then Oklahoma at home on Nov. 28.
So what does that mean for the Tigers? In short: nearly everything is still on the table, but not much of it comes with friendly odds.
The SEC Championship Game is still technically in play, but Missouri would likely need to win out to get there. At 10-2 overall and 7-2 in league play, the Tigers could force their way into the conversation, though that remains a long shot.
Kentucky is currently sitting at 7-1 overall and 5-1 in SEC play, while Georgia is 6-1 and 4-1. Behind them are eight teams already carrying two SEC losses: Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, and Oklahoma.
With 13 games still left among those 10 teams, the conference race is wide open and the tiebreaker math is only going to get uglier.
The numbers back up how steep Missouri’s climb is. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Tigers a 0.5% chance to win the SEC, the lowest number among those 10 teams.
The Athletic’s projections also put Missouri at under 1%, again the lowest in that group. Both systems have Georgia as the favorite to win the league.
Caesars Sports Book is just as skeptical. Missouri sits at +4000 to win the SEC, again last among the 10 teams. Georgia is the favorite at -105, followed by LSU at +675 and Alabama at +750.
The College Football Playoff picture is a little better, though not by much. ESPN’s FPI gives Missouri a 4.7% chance to make the 12-team field, up from 3.7% after the loss to Ole Miss. The Athletic has the Tigers at 8%.
That number still looks thin, but it’s not impossible to move if Missouri can start stacking wins. Three of the Tigers’ final five opponents - Texas, Georgia and Kentucky - all currently have better than a 50% chance to make the playoff themselves, according to FPI. Texas is at 57.7%, Georgia at 80.1%, and Kentucky at 52.1%.
At Caesars, Missouri is listed at +800 to reach the CFP. Georgia leads the SEC at -1200, trailing only Miami (Fla.) at -4000 and Indiana at -1400 overall.
For now, though, Missouri isn’t showing up in any of the major outlet projections for the 12-team bracket. That changes the moment the Tigers can get to 7-2, which would mean wins over Arkansas and Texas in the next two weeks.
And if the playoff route still looks like a steep hill, the bowl picture is at least more crowded with possibilities. CBS Sports projects Missouri against Duke in the Gasparilla Bowl.
The Athletic has Nebraska in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Sports Illustrated tabs Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl.
ESPN’s projections split on the opponent - Baylor in both cases - but one writer has Missouri in the Kinder's Texas Bowl and the other in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. College Football News also sends the Tigers to the AutoZone Liberty Bowl, this time against Oklahoma State.
So yes, the range is wide. SEC title chase, playoff push, or a bowl game somewhere on the postseason map - Missouri still has all of it in play, which is exactly why the next five weeks matter so much.
In Other News...
Mizzous First Arkansas Injury Report Leaves One Road Concern Unsettled
The SECs first injury report for Missouris trip to Arkansas offered a little clarity and one notable dose of uncertainty for the Tigers. Three Missouri players were listed as out, and the biggest item on the report for the road team centered on Ahmad Hardy, whose status remains unsettled heading into Saturday. For a Mizzou roster that has already dealt with its share of moving pieces, the report at least gave a baseline for the week, even if it did not answer every question.
Arkansas has its own injury concerns to sort through, with four players out and three listed as probable, while leading receiver Chris Marshall was tagged questionable. The availability side of the matchup matters here because this is the kind of SEC game where both teams want every edge they can find, especially in the final hours before kickoff. And beyond the injury list, Missouri still has other roster-related issues in the background, including the temporary restraining order extension tied to CJ Gunns eligibility, leaving one more layer of uncertainty hanging over a week already full of it. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Just Got An Ahmad Hardy Twist Fans Have Waited On
Missouri got a small but notable lift on the availability front heading into its matchup with Arkansas, with running back Ahmad Hardy moving from out to unlisted on the SEC Student-Athlete Availability Report. The update means Hardy is technically in play for the Tigers, and it comes after head coach Eli Drinkwitz said the back has returned to practice even though the staff still has no firm timetable for when he will be back on the field.
For a Missouri offense that has been watching its injury report closely, the Hardy update stands out even with three Tigers still listed out. Arkansas has plenty to monitor on its own side, with eight players on the report and wideout Chris Marshall listed as questionable, but Missouris bigger storyline may be whether Hardys return is close enough to matter on game day. [Read more 🡒]
Auburn Gets One Last Chance To Clean Things Up Before Opening Night
The preseason tune-up slate across college basketball continues Thursday, Oct. 29, with eight exhibition games scheduled around the country, and there is a little something extra for Missouri fans to watch in one of the more notable matchups. Missouri gets UNLV, which now features former Tiger Sebastian Mack, while programs like Boise State and Northern Iowa also take the floor as coaches look for one more clear read on their rosters before the games start counting for real.
Auburn, meanwhile, closes out its exhibition calendar against Samford with one final chance to smooth out the rough edges before opening night. For a team still sorting through early-season rhythms, these dress rehearsals matter because they offer one last live look at lineups, rotations and conditioning before the spotlight gets brighter and the margin for fixing mistakes disappears. [Read more 🡒]