Missouri opens the season ranked No. 25, but the road to a real College Football Playoff push is as narrow as it is unforgiving.
The Tigers enter with an over/under of 6.5 wins, which tells you plenty about the expectations outside Columbia. Still, Eli Drinkwitz’s team has a door cracked open if it can survive the first month.
Missouri’s second half is brutal, with five opponents ranked in the preseason Top 10, which means the Tigers need a 5-0 start just to keep themselves in the conversation. For now, they’re on the outside looking in and facing a mountain of work.
The bigger CFP picture begins with Georgia as the SEC favorite. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 3 in the preseason Top 25 and are led by fifth-year senior quarterback Gunner Stockton. Kirby Smart’s group is loaded again, and after back-to-back quarterfinal losses in the CFP, there’s plenty of motivation to finally break through.
Ohio State is the Big Ten favorite and the No. 1 team in the country. Julian Sayin is back at quarterback, Jeremiah Smith returns at wide receiver, and the Buckeyes get an early measuring stick in Week 2 when they travel to No. 5 Texas.
Texas Tech gets the nod as the Big 12 favorite. Joey McGuire’s team has quarterback depth with Will Hammond expected to start and Thomas Castellanos arriving late.
The schedule also helps, since the Red Raiders face only one preseason ranked opponent: No. 23 Houston in the Big 12 opener on September 18th.
Miami (FL) is the ACC favorite. Darian Mensah is in position to make his case as one of the best quarterbacks in College Football, while Mizzou transfer defensive lineman Damon Wilson is expected to be a major factor on defense.
The Hurricanes have just one preseason ranked opponent, a November 7 trip to No. 4 Notre Dame.
Notre Dame gets the automatic bid in this projection. CJ Carr is the quarterback, Jordan Faison is the go-to receiver, and Marcus Freeman’s team is viewed as his best yet. An undefeated regular season is not out of the question.
Boise State earns the Group of Six automatic bid. Maddux Madsen is back at quarterback, and the Broncos were picked to finish first in the Pac-12 preseason poll.
Their opener at No. 2 Oregon on Saturday will be a first real test, and a chance to show they belong among the top G6 teams.
Among the at-large selections, Oregon sits just behind Ohio State by the slimmest of margins. Dante Moore is back at quarterback, Minnesota transfer Koi Perich anchors the defense, and Dan Lanning has another stacked roster in Eugene.
The defending national champions are also projected back into the field, led by the best coach in the country. The question is whether TCU quarterback Josh Hoover can produce at the level Fernando Mendoza did, because that is a lot to ask at the most important position.
Texas is in the mix too, with Arch Manning leading a pivotal season for Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns after last year’s CFP miss. The offense gets a boost from impact transfers Hollywood Smothers and Cam Coleman.
Ole Miss gets in as well, with Trinidad Chambliss back for his fifth year of eligibility and former Mizzou running back Kewan Lacy helping create a dynamic offense. Pete Golding is in his full season replacing Lane Kiffin.
USC rounds out the at-large group. It’s a big season for Lincoln Riley, but he has what looks like his most talented team, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. The Trojans already opened with a Week 0 win over San Jose State.
Texas A&M is the final at-large team. Marcel Reed had an up-and-down year last season, but another season of experience should help. Mario Craver gives the Aggies a major threat at receiver, and Mike Elko’s team is expected to get back in the CFP after losing a home game in the first round to Miami (FL) last season.
The top four seeds in this projection are Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Notre Dame.
That creates a projected bracket of Boise State at Texas, USC at Ole Miss, Miami (FL) at Indiana, and Texas Tech at Texas A&M.
The Final Four has Notre Dame against Ohio State and Georgia against Oregon, with Oregon projected to beat Notre Dame for the national championship.
In Other News...
Missouris Roster Chaos Just Added Another Problem Before LSU
Missouris preparation for LSU and the rest of the opening stretch got a little less cloudy with Sterling Webb back in the conversation. The defensive tackle had been under a temporary restraining order against the NCAA, and a St. Louis County judge has now upheld it, clearing the way for him to remain eligible and take part in upcoming games, including Week 1.
Eli Drinkwitz acknowledged the ruling but stopped there, leaving the bigger question hanging over Webbs status beyond the immediate schedule. For a Missouri team already managing roster churn, any stability on the defensive front matters, and Webbs availability at least removes one problem from the short-term picture while the long-term one remains unresolved. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzous 2026 Ceiling May Come Down To One Major Concern
Missouris 2026 outlook looks like the kind of projection that can make a teams fan base dream a little bigger than usual. Under Eli Drinkwitz, the Tigers appear to have enough pieces in place to stay firmly in the conversation, with the preseason conversation leaning heavily on a defense that should be the backbone of the team and on a handful of players expected to shape the year on both sides of the ball.
Still, the ceiling may hinge on one area that can swing a season quickly, especially when the schedule starts forcing harder questions. The game-by-game forecast around the Tigers reflects plenty of optimism, but it also leaves room for the same concern that follows any ambitious Missouri preview: if that one issue shows up at the wrong time, the difference between a good season and a great one could come down to it. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzous Opener Could Reveal Whether This Offense Is Really Ready
Missouri opens its 136th football season with Arkansas Pine-Bluff, and the game should offer an early read on how ready the offense really is. Beyond the obvious talent gap, the opener gives the Tigers a chance to sort through injuries, new faces and early-season roles while seeing how the group operates in a live setting after an offseason of expectations.
What will matter most is whether the quarterbacks play with a little more aggression and whether the passing game starts to show some vertical variety, especially through the tight ends. Up front, Jack Lange is one of the more interesting names to follow as Missouri reshuffles its looks, and his work could help answer a bigger question about how stable the line feels as the Tigers try to establish rhythm early. [Read more 🡒]