Week 4 brings the kind of college football slate that grabs your attention fast, and this one is packed at the top. Four ranked SEC matchups are on the board - a college football record - and Missouri is right in the middle of it, heading to Starkville for its SEC opener against Mississippi State. College Gameday is in Knoxville for Texas-Tennessee, and the picks are rolling in with the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Before the Week 4 calls, here’s where the standings sit after Week 3:
Stava: 13-6
Gustafson: 12-7
Matejka: 10-4
Lewis: 7-2
Hurst: 2-2
No. 19 Missouri Tigers at No.
24 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-5.5) (6:45 p.m. CST on SEC Network)
Sammy Stava sees Missouri’s game against Troy as something of a false alarm. He thinks the Tigers are better than they showed and expects them to prove it in Starkville, even with Mississippi State holding the quarterback edge with Kamario Taylor.
Still, he points to the stakes for Eli Drinkwitz and likes Missouri to pull it out on the road: “if Eli Drinkwitz is the 11th highest paid head coach in College Football , this is a game the program needs to win.” His pick: Missouri 37-31.
Matthew Gustafson is also leaning Tigers, but he expects the trip to be anything but easy. He compares it to last year’s Missouri-Auburn game at Jordan-Hare, with the atmosphere and the night setting making life miserable.
Even so, he believes Missouri has enough talent and enough flashes on tape to leave Davis Wade with a win. His score: Missouri 35-31.
No. 1 Texas Longhorns (-5.5) at No.
14 Tennessee Volunteers (11:00 a.m. CST on ABC)
Stava is riding Texas after the Longhorns’ statement win over Ohio State, saying there’s urgency around Steve Sarkisian in a pivotal year. He likes Arch Manning to lead the way and take Texas into Knoxville and out with a win. His pick: Texas 30-21, Hook ‘Em.
Gustafson thinks Texas would have been a much bigger concern if this game had come immediately after the Ohio State win, but he believes the Longhorns are on a different level than Tennessee. He says Tennessee has looked good so far, yet the challenge is steep for a true freshman quarterback in Faizon Brandon. His call: Texas 31-24.
No. 4 Ole Miss Rebels at No.
21 Florida Gators (-3.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on ABC)
Stava sees a tricky spot for Ole Miss after an emotional win over LSU, with Florida waiting in The Swamp. He also likes the momentum Florida has built in Year One under Jon Sumrall. His pick: Florida 24-20.
Gustafson goes even further, suggesting some people in Oxford may still be feeling the aftereffects of last week. He thinks that kind of hangover is a bad setup for a road game in Gainesville, especially against a Florida team that just beat Auburn on the road. He’s taking the Gators in a high-scoring finish: Florida 38-35.
No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes at No.
18 Michigan Wolverines (-5.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on CBS)
Stava likes Iowa’s balance and believes the Hawkeyes are the more complete team. Even away from home, he thinks their offense gives them just enough edge. His pick: Iowa 20-16.
Gustafson isn’t sold on Michigan after the Wolverines fell behind 14-0 to UTEP last week, but he still sees a tough road for Iowa in Ann Arbor. He notes that Iowa hasn’t beaten a ranked Big Ten team on the road since 2015 at Northwestern, and he doesn’t think that streak ends in the Big House. His pick: Michigan 24-20.
No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies at No.
10 LSU Tigers (6:30 p.m. CST on ABC)
Stava thinks Texas A&M could be headed for a rough year after the loss to Kentucky, especially with that setback coming at home. He expects LSU to respond in Death Valley after its loss, and he calls it a big chance for Lane Kiffin’s Tigers to make a statement. His pick: LSU 35-23.
Gustafson isn’t holding the LSU loss against the Tigers too much because of the environment they were in, but he has no problem using Texas A&M’s home loss to Kentucky against the Aggies. With LSU at home on Saturday night, he’s taking the Bayou Bengals. His score: LSU 41-28.
In Other News...
Texas Faces A Backfield Concern Right Before Week 4
Injury updates around the SEC already shaped up to be part of the Week 4 conversation on College GameDay, with ESPNs Pete Thamel laying out the status of several backs in the conference. Texas is expected to have Hollywood Smothers dress and try to go through an ankle injury, Ole Miss is bracing for the likely absence of Kewan Lacy because of a shoulder issue, and Floridas Eric Singleton Jr. is still headed toward a game-time call after his own ankle problem.
For Missouri, the attention turns to Ahmad Hardy, who has not practiced yet after surgery, leaving the Tigers to wait on a key piece as they move through the week. The timing matters because Missouri has already ruled him out for Saturdays game at Mississippi State, and the next step is about more than just pain tolerance, it is about whether he can get back on the field with enough ramp-up to be ready when the Tigers need him again. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Heads Into Another SEC Test With A New Lineup Problem
Missouri is heading into another SEC test with more shuffling to do on both sides of the ball. Defensive end Darris Smith was ruled out on the league availability and injury report for the game against Mississippi State, while star running back Ahmad Hardy and backup Malae Fonoti also showed up as out for the Tigers. It is the latest reminder that depth has become part of the week-to-week conversation as Missouri tries to keep its footing in conference play.
Smiths absence is especially notable because he had already been a key piece on the edge before getting hurt against Troy, and Missouri has to account for that loss while trying to steady a defense facing another physical opponent. Hardys status adds a different kind of pressure on the offense, since the Tigers are still waiting on his return timeline, and the backfield picture remains unsettled as Missouri looks for answers going into Saturday. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Faces One Early SEC Test They Can't Win Playing Loose
Missouris unbeaten start is about to be tested in a way that should tell us plenty about where this team really stands. No. 19 Missouri heads into Week 4 against No. 24 Mississippi State with both teams undefeated and both still searching for a ranked SEC win that has been hard to come by in recent seasons, which adds some early weight to a game that already carries real conference implications.
For the Tigers, the margin for error feels thin against an opponent that has played fast and put up points with consistency. Missouris path is less about style and more about control, with a need for better balance on offense and cleaner possession football after some recent uneven stretches, because letting Mississippi State dictate the tempo would put the Tigers in a bad spot before the fourth quarter even starts. [Read more 🡒]