ESPN’s FPI has Missouri as a slight favorite when the Tigers host Texas A&M in Columbia in Week 6.
The model gives Missouri a 51.6% chance to win, making this one of the closer calls on the SEC slate. That fits the way both teams are trending heading into the matchup: Missouri is coming off an eye-catching win over Florida in Week 5, while Texas A&M still has a lot to prove if it wants to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Texas A&M’s path is narrow from here. The source notes the Aggies would need to run the table to have any shot at making the playoff, and they enter this one trying to stabilize an offense that has not yet clicked. Marcel Reed has thrown for 908 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through five games, a step back from the version of him who drew Heisman buzz at points last season.
The Aggies did at least get a much-needed response in Week 5 after dropping two straight, handling Arkansas with help from a strong defensive showing. But against Missouri, that defense may need to be sharp again, because the Tigers are rolling on offense.
Against Florida, Missouri put together a huge day through the air and on the ground. Austin Simmons passed for 340 yards and two touchdowns, while Jamal Roberts added 211 rushing yards and three scores. With that kind of production, Missouri enters the matchup with one of the most dangerous offenses in college football.
In Other News...
Missouris Offense Is Suddenly Passing An Early SEC Stress Test
Missouris offense has already been tested in a way that says plenty about where this team might be headed in SEC play. Even with injuries and a reshuffled cast around it, the Tigers have been moving the ball with real purpose, a notable development in a league where early defensive pressure tends to expose any weakness fast. The bigger picture around college football this fall has included all kinds of offensive identities, from old-school schemes winning at Northwestern to Texas leaning on defense, but Missouris improvement has stood out because it has come while the roster has been forced to adapt.
The challenge is still part performance, part personnel. Running back Ahmad Hardy has not played this season after a gunshot injury, which has pushed more responsibility onto transfer quarterback Austin Simmons and a group of new receivers. Even with that burden, Missouri has found ways to keep the attack on schedule and productive, a good sign for a team trying to prove its offense can hold up as SEC defenses get tougher and the season wears on. [Read more 🡒]
Florida Injury Update Could Matter More To Mizzou Fans Than Expected
Floridas receiving picture got a little clearer this week, and for Missouri fans, it is worth watching even though the Tigers are already past that matchup. Gators coach Jon Sumrall said Vernell Brown III, who hurt his knee in Week 4 and sat out the Week 5 game against Mizzou, has been cleared to practice and run after an MRI showed no long-term damage.
The part that still matters is what comes next. Browns status for Floridas Week 6 home game against South Carolina is still up in the air, and while he is moving around again, the final hurdle is whether he can do enough of the sharper work that comes with game action. Missouri got the version of Florida without him, but this update suggests the Gators may still be sorting out how soon he can return to a real role. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Defense Just Silenced A Major SEC Concern
Missouris 45-17 win over Florida was about more than another lopsided SEC result. It also came with a sharp answer to one of the leagues more persistent concerns, as the Tigers defense kept Floridas ground game from ever settling in and made the Gators play uphill for most of the afternoon. Missouri was cleaner at the point of attack, better on the perimeter and more reliable in space, the kind of performance that can change how a defense is viewed over the long haul.
Jadan Baughs early burst offered Florida a brief sense of possibility, but Missouri quickly took that away by closing off the outside-zone lanes and finishing tackles with much more authority than it had shown at times earlier this season. For a defense that had been waiting for a statement against the run, this was the kind of tape coaches can point to with real satisfaction, even if the bigger question now is whether it can stack another outing like it. [Read more 🡒]