As Mizzou students return from spring break and the football team wraps up spring practice, the focus shifts from development to predictions for the upcoming season. Bill Connelly of ESPN has released his first SP+ ratings for 2026, placing the Tigers at No. 20 nationally.
Now, seeing Mizzou in the top 25 might raise some eyebrows, especially considering the significant roster changes. The Tigers are replacing ten defensive starters from last year's standout unit, with a nearly rebuilt secondary and a front seven that lost several NFL-caliber players. Offensively, key positions like the offensive line and wide receiver also need new faces.
But before we jump to conclusions, let's dig into why this ranking makes sense.
SP+ isn't about perception or star power. It's an efficiency-based metric that considers returning production, recent performance, recruiting, and transfer history. It evaluates a team's per-play efficiency rather than its explosiveness.
Under Eli Drinkwitz, Mizzou has become one of the more efficiency-focused teams in college football. The offense prioritizes staying ahead of the chains and avoiding negative plays, while the defense focuses on limiting explosive plays and capitalizing on mistakes. This approach may not be flashy, but it aligns perfectly with what SP+ values.
Despite the turnover, the Tigers' system remains intact, and the coaching staff has proven its ability to develop talent within this framework. The roster may be less experienced, but it's not lacking in talent.
Historically, SP+ has been optimistic about Mizzou under Drinkwitz. In 2024, the Tigers started at No. 11 in the preseason rankings and finished at No.
- In 2025, they began at No. 15 and ended at No.
- These aren't major discrepancies, showing that SP+ has a solid grasp of Mizzou's consistent performance.
However, there's a pattern: preseason rankings have been slightly more optimistic than final results. This trend matters when considering this year's No. 20 ranking, as SP+ may slightly overestimate efficiency.
Mizzou's style excels in the numbers but might not always translate to a higher ceiling on the field, especially when explosive plays are needed in big games. With a roster undergoing significant changes, including a complete defensive overhaul, there's a learning curve. New starters must communicate effectively, young players need to adapt, and transfers must integrate smoothly.
Offensively, there are promising additions, particularly at wide receiver and the offensive line, but questions remain about how quickly these pieces will gel.
No. 20 might seem ambitious, but it's not unreasonable. It assumes a smooth transition and that Mizzou's established efficiency will persist despite new faces. Drinkwitz and his staff have shown they can maintain a functional, efficient team through various challenges, including roster turnover and the transfer portal era.
Defensively, the scheme remains solid. Despite losses, the Tigers have recruited well and added fitting pieces through the portal. While early-season dominance might wane, a complete collapse seems unlikely.
Offensively, there's potential for improvement. If the offensive line stabilizes and new wide receivers create more separation, the passing game could advance from 2025's performance.
When you put it all together, Mizzou's spot in the top 25 becomes justifiable. They aren't elite or rebuilding-just consistently solid. That's where they've been for the past three years, and it's exactly where SP+ places them now.
So, while No. 20 might have been unexpected, the Tigers' track record and system provide a compelling case for this ranking.