Missouri’s Buzzer-Beater Win Over Texas A&M Breathes New Life Into NCAA Tournament Hopes
Sometimes, it really does come down to inches. Missouri basketball found that out the dramatic way Wednesday night in College Station.
With the clock winding down and the Tigers trailing by one, Mark Mitchell lofted a perfectly timed lob to Shawn Phillips Jr., who finished the play with authority. Then, with Texas A&M pushing for a last-second answer, Mizzou’s defense stood tall - stuffing the Aggies at the buzzer to seal an 86-85 road win.
It was the kind of gritty, gutsy finish that can define a season - and, more importantly, reshape a tournament résumé.
Missouri’s reward? A critical bump in bracketology.
According to ESPN’s latest projection, the Tigers moved from the first team out of the NCAA Tournament field to the last team in. That’s the razor-thin margin between heartbreak and hope.
From No. 69 to No. 68.
From watching at home to dancing in March.
And now, with a 17-7 overall record and a 7-4 mark in SEC play, Mizzou is right in the thick of it - not just in the NCAA Tournament picture, but in the conference race as well.
A Bubble Battle Brewing in Columbia
Saturday’s showdown against Texas at Mizzou Arena just got a whole lot bigger. The game was already circled on the calendar, but now it’s shaping up as a bubble battle with high-stakes implications. Both teams are fighting for their place in the field, and with a sold-out crowd expected in Columbia, the energy should be electric.
The Tigers helped themselves in a big way with that road win at Texas A&M - a Quad 1 victory that carries serious weight on Selection Sunday. True road wins in tough environments are gold in the eyes of the committee, and this one checks all the boxes.
Since Tuesday, Mizzou has climbed five spots in the NET rankings, now sitting at No. 57.
The Tigers are 3-4 in Quad 1 games, 6-7 when combining Quads 1 and 2, and remain undefeated in Quads 3 and 4. That’s a profile trending in the right direction - and one that’s starting to catch the attention of bracketologists across the country.
CBS Sports currently projects Missouri as an 11-seed, slotted to face TCU in a First Four matchup in Dayton. On3 still has the Tigers just outside the field, but the gap is narrowing.
Texas, for what it’s worth, is in a similar spot - among the last four teams in. Saturday’s game could be a swing moment for both programs.
Analytics Trending Up
If you’re a fan of the numbers, Bart Torvik’s data paints a promising picture. On Tuesday morning, Missouri had just a 32.2% chance of making the tournament, per Torvik’s “TourneyCast” model. By Thursday morning, that number had jumped to 48.9% - a nearly 17-point swing in just two days, based on 10,000 simulations of the season’s remainder.
That’s what a clutch road win can do. It doesn’t just change the standings - it shifts the entire narrative.
Making Noise in the SEC
Let’s not overlook the SEC race, either. With their third straight win in conference play - a rare feat for Missouri since joining the league in 2012 - the Tigers have surged into a five-way tie for fourth place. And thanks to tiebreakers, if the season ended today, Mizzou would own the No. 4 seed and a coveted double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
That’s a significant development, especially in a league as deep and unpredictable as the SEC. Missouri already owns wins over Kentucky and Florida, two of the three teams ahead of them in the standings.
The Tigers also have two games left against Arkansas, the third team in that group. In other words, this race is far from over - and Mizzou is right in the mix.
It’s worth noting that this three-game SEC win streak is just the eighth such streak for Missouri since joining the conference. Four of those have come under head coach Dennis Gates, who continues to push the program forward in big moments.
The Path Ahead
Let’s be clear: Missouri isn’t out of the woods just yet. The Tigers are still walking a fine line, and one misstep - a bad loss or a sluggish stretch - could send them tumbling back toward the wrong side of the bubble.
But here’s the good news: the opportunity is right in front of them. Three of their next four games are at home.
Two of those are potential Quad 1 matchups. If Mizzou can hold serve on its home floor and steal one or two more big wins, they’ll be in a strong position when the committee makes its call.
Saturday against Texas is the next test. It’s not just another game - it’s a chance to take control of the narrative, to build real momentum, and to keep climbing the bracket.
Everything’s still on the table. The Tigers just have to keep seizing the moment.