Missouri's narrow 86-85 road win over Texas A&M on Wednesday wasn’t just another tally in the win column - it was a lifeline in the Tigers’ push toward March Madness. With Selection Sunday looming, Mizzou sits right on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and every possession, every win, is starting to feel like it carries the weight of the season.
As of Wednesday, Missouri showed up in 56 of 111 projections on BracketMatrix.com, with an average seed of 11.04. That puts them, for now, as the very last team in the field. It's a precarious position, but it also means the Tigers are firmly in the conversation - and that’s no small feat this late in the season.
What’s keeping Missouri in the mix? It starts with how they’ve handled the meat of their schedule. While some programs have padded their records with easy wins against overmatched opponents, Missouri’s résumé is largely being evaluated without the benefit of those so-called “buy games” - the early-season home matchups against mid-majors that often inflate win totals but don’t move the needle with the selection committee.
Instead, the Tigers’ tournament hopes are being propped up by their record in more meaningful contests. They’re 8-7 in those games - not eye-popping, but enough to keep them afloat.
And importantly, they only crossed the .500 mark in that category after stringing together a three-game winning streak. That kind of momentum matters in February, especially when the committee starts comparing bubble teams with similar records but different trajectories.
Bracketologist Rocco Miller, who’s been in the projection game since 2010, has taken note of Missouri’s path. His evaluations, like many others, are focused less on cupcake wins and more on how a team performs when the lights are bright and the stakes are real. By that measure, Missouri is holding its own - and in some cases, outpacing its bubble competition.
The Tigers still have work to do. One win, even a gritty one on the road, doesn’t punch a ticket to the Dance.
But it does give them a foundation to build on. If they can keep stacking quality wins and avoid any late-season slip-ups, they’ve got a real shot to be part of the madness come March.
For now, Missouri is walking the tightrope - but they’re still on it. And in a season where the margin for error is razor-thin, that’s exactly where they need to be.