Missouri basketball is still dancing on the edge of March Madness-just barely.
After a rollercoaster week that saw the Tigers drop a heartbreaker to Georgia before pulling off a wild, buzzer-beating win over Oklahoma, Mizzou sits at 14-6 overall and 4-3 in SEC play. It wasn’t the kind of week that vaults a team into firm tournament territory, but it was enough to keep Missouri in the bubble conversation-hanging on by the thinnest of threads.
Now, with a trip to Tuscaloosa to face No. 23 Alabama looming, the Tigers are staring down a pivotal moment in their season.
A win on the road against a ranked SEC opponent would be a massive résumé booster. A loss?
It could push them even further toward the wrong side of the cut line.
Where Missouri Stands Right Now
Let’s break down Missouri’s current NCAA Tournament résumé-and why it’s such a mixed bag.
- NET Ranking: No. 68
- Quad 1 Record: 3-3
- Quad 2 Record: 1-3
- Quad 3 Record: 1-0
- Quad 4 Record: 9-0
The quadrant system is all about quality wins and where they happen. Quad 1 games are the toughest-think top-tier opponents, especially on the road-and Mizzou has done reasonably well there, going .500 in six tries.
That’s a solid foundation. But the 1-3 mark in Quad 2 games hurts, and there’s not much meat on the bone in Quads 3 and 4, where the Tigers have mostly taken care of business against lesser competition.
Missouri actually dropped one spot in the NET rankings since Jan. 20, which reflects how critical every game is at this point. The margin for error is razor-thin.
What the Experts Are Saying
Right now, Missouri is living in the bubble’s most precarious neighborhoods-just outside the field in most projections, but not so far that a strong finish couldn’t change everything.
- USA Today: The Tigers are in the First Four Out category, grouped with Virginia Tech, Indiana, and Seton Hall. That means they’re essentially team No. 69-just one spot away from cracking the 68-team field.
- ESPN: Joe Lunardi has Missouri a little further out, placing them in the Next Four Out. That puts them as the fifth team outside the field, and first in that tier. It’s not where you want to be, but it’s also not insurmountable.
- CBS Sports: Some good news here-CBS has Missouri sneaking into the field as one of the Last Four In. That would send the Tigers to Dayton for a First Four matchup against Saint Mary’s. It’s not glamorous, but it’s a shot at the main bracket, and at this point, that’s all Mizzou can ask for.
- Bart Torvik: The analytics paint a tough picture. According to Torvik’s T-Ranketology model, Missouri has a 17.1% chance of making the tournament.
That’s down from 20.8% just a week ago. In Torvik’s simulations, Mizzou is the seventh team out and the highest-ranked SEC team not currently in the field.
What’s Next?
The Tigers are still alive, but the clock is ticking. Tuesday night’s matchup at Alabama offers a golden opportunity to flip the narrative. A road win over a ranked team would be a Quad 1 gem-and exactly the kind of signature victory that selection committees remember in March.
Missouri has shown flashes of being a tournament-worthy team. But with their current résumé, those flashes need to become a full-on surge. The bubble is a brutal place to live, and every possession from here on out matters.
The Tigers have the talent. Now it’s about stacking wins-and making sure buzzer-beaters aren’t the only thing keeping their season alive.