Missouri is walking into Athens as a heavy underdog, but Josh Pate doesn’t think the Tigers are doomed to get blown out right away. The college football analyst sees a game that stays competitive for a while before No. 1 Georgia eventually opens it up late.
“I’m going to take Georgia to win and cover the game,” Pate said on Tuesday night’s edition of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He pegged the Bulldogs as a 15-point favorite, which lines up closely with the betting market.
Georgia comes in at 8-1 overall and 6-1 in the SEC after hammering Ole Miss 42-7 in Oxford and reclaiming the top spot in the AP Top 25. Pate isn’t buying the idea that the Bulldogs will come out flat after that kind of statement win.
“Kirby’s been around this block plenty of times to understand, like that famous quote of his, humility is just a week away,” Pate said.
The recent history between these teams points the same way. Kirby Smart is 8-0 against Missouri, and the last matchup in 2023 ended with Georgia winning 30-21 at home.
Even so, Pate pushed back on the notion that Georgia is operating on a different planet from everyone else. He pointed to the Bulldogs’ narrow escape against Alabama and their home loss to Auburn as reminders that the margins can shrink fast.
“I promise you the margins aren’t that big in the sport right now,” Pate said.
For Missouri, the path to making this interesting runs through Jamal Roberts. The Tigers’ offense has been at its best when the SEC’s leading rusher is rolling, and the numbers back that up: Missouri is 5-0 against FBS opponents when Roberts goes over 100 yards and 0-3 when he doesn’t.
“They’ve got to have Jamal Roberts have a really good day on the ground,” Pate said.
Roberts ripped off 222 yards against Texas A&M in October, but Texas bottled him up for 66 yards on 19 carries Saturday in Columbia. That game turned in the second half, when the Longhorns scored three straight touchdowns to win 34-20. Pate said Missouri probably needs a few big bursts from Roberts rather than a steady grind, especially with the Tigers sitting 126th nationally in rushing success rate.
He also wants Missouri to make Georgia throw the ball more, though he acknowledged that Gunner Stockton can still beat teams that way. Stockton has 18 touchdown passes this season.
“They can just beat you with Gunner Stockton throwing the ball,” Pate said. “At least if Gunner Stockton has to put the ball in the air, maybe I can affect him.”
Georgia coach Kirby Smart described Missouri as having “one of the most disruptive fronts in the league.” That front will be missing defensive lineman Langden Kitchen, who is out for the season after knee surgery.
Pate still doesn’t expect the Bulldogs to sprint away early. His read is that Missouri can hang around into the second half, but Georgia’s depth eventually becomes the difference.
“It could go from a really, really tightly contested game to 31-14 or something like that,” Pate said. “It ends up where you’re saying, ‘Man, they had a fight on their hands, and they still found a way to cover that number.’”
If Missouri wants to flip that script, Pate said it needs something early - a special teams swing, a turnover, or a cleaner offensive rhythm than expected. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz also addressed the officiating complaints from the Texas loss on Tuesday, saying, “I refuse to give in to being a victim mentality.”
Missouri visits Georgia on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
In Other News...
Mizzou Has One Rising Bright Spot As A Bigger Problem Grows
Austin Simmons gave Missouri something to build on in the 34-20 loss to Texas, even as the result underscored how much work still sits ahead. The quarterback turned in a strong individual performance and offered a clear bright spot in a game where the Tigers needed one, while Sterling Webbs expanded role at edge came after Langden Kitchen went down and forced Missouri to adjust on the fly.
The bigger concern is starting to feel like the kicking game, where Blake Craig missed key kicks and left the Tigers without much certainty in a spot that can swing close games. Oliver Robbins could enter the picture as competition develops, and Eli Drinkwitz has already acknowledged the inconsistency among Missouris specialists, a problem that can linger if it is not sorted out quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Gets One Huge Georgia Question And One Brutal Injury Blow
Missouri got a mixed update on the injury front this week as it prepares for Georgia, with wide receiver Cayden Lee cleared to play after the knee issue he picked up against Texas. Eli Drinkwitz said there was no structural damage, which is a relief for a passing game that can ill afford to lose another key piece as the schedule tightens and the margin for error gets thinner.
The tougher news came on the defensive side, where starting edge rusher Langden Kitchen had surgery on a knee injury and will miss the rest of the season. That leaves Missouri without one of its front-line pass rushers at a time when every snap matters, while Georgia brings its own uncertainty with two players on the injury report, including one questionable and another already ruled out for the year. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Could Be Running Out Of Proven QB Options
The quarterback market is tightening fast, and Missouri fans have a direct stake in how the dominoes fall. Mississippi States Kamario Taylor is reportedly finalizing a deal to stay put, a move that could make him the highest-paid quarterback in college football, while other notable passers such as Missouris Austin Simmons and Oregon States Braden Atkinson have already committed to returning to their programs. For teams still hunting for help, the pool of proven options is shrinking by the day.
That matters because the transfer portal has become the quickest path to stability for programs looking to upgrade under center, and the competition for those names is only getting fiercer. With several quarterbacks opting to remain where they are, the market is starting to look thinner than expected, leaving coaches to weigh fewer established choices against the pressure to find an answer soon. [Read more 🡒]