Missouri Basketball: Navigating the March Madness Bubble
As the college basketball season heats up, Missouri finds itself in a precarious position, teetering on the edge of the March Madness bubble. Head coach Dennis Gates acknowledges the volatility of this stretch, emphasizing that "there's a lot of things that can shift for every team."
Missouri (18-9, 8-6 SEC) has had a mixed week, securing a crucial victory over Vanderbilt at home but falling short in a competitive road game against Arkansas. These performances have generally bolstered their standing in the tournament projections, but the road ahead remains challenging with upcoming games against No. 22 Tennessee and Mississippi State.
Breaking Down Missouri’s Tournament Resume
Currently, Missouri holds a NET ranking of No. 60, with a record that includes:
- Quad 1: 4-5
- Quad 2: 4-4
- Quad 3: 2-0
- Quad 4: 8-0
Their recent loss to Arkansas nudged them down one spot in the NET rankings. The quadrant system, which considers game location and opponent strength, will play a crucial role in determining Missouri's tournament fate. The upcoming clash with Tennessee presents a valuable Quad 1 opportunity, while the game against Mississippi State will be classified as Quad 2.
Tournament Projections: Where Does Missouri Stand?
ESPN’s latest projections have Missouri entering the tournament as an 11-seed, facing Santa Clara in Dayton, Ohio, for a First Four matchup. The potential for a Round of 32 showdown with their storied rival, Kansas, adds an intriguing layer to the narrative.
However, Missouri must first focus on securing their spot beyond the First Four. Outpacing conference rivals like Texas and Auburn could be key to avoiding Dayton altogether.
CBS Sports echoes ESPN’s sentiment, placing Missouri in the First Four, this time against California. The margins are razor-thin, and every game from here on out will significantly impact their standing.
On a less optimistic note, USA Today currently projects Missouri outside the tournament field entirely. Their absence from both the main draw and the First Four highlights the urgency for Missouri to finish the season strong.
Analytics Insight: Bart Torvik’s Take
Analytics site Bart Torvik presents a 49.5% chance for Missouri to make the NCAA Tournament, down from 61.2% before the Arkansas game. These projections, based on extensive simulations, suggest Missouri is the last team in, reinforcing the notion of a nail-biting finish to the season.
In summary, Missouri’s path to March Madness is fraught with challenges and opportunities. With critical games on the horizon, the Tigers must capitalize on every chance to solidify their place in the tournament. As the season unfolds, fans will be watching closely, hoping for a strong finish that keeps Missouri dancing into March.