Missouri football enters the 2026 season with the oddsmakers expecting some pullback, but the Tigers still have a path to a solid year if they can survive a brutal SEC grind.
Vegas has Missouri’s win total at 6.5 with only a few days left before kickoff, a number that sits against the backdrop of a program that tied its winningest three-season stretch in school history last year. The Tigers have won 29 games over the past three seasons and have beaten the betting line in two of those years.
The schedule, though, is no joke. Missouri is staring at a nine-game SEC slate and five games against preseason top-10 teams. The season begins Thursday at 7 p.m. in Columbia against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and from there the Tigers will spend the fall trying to prove they belong in the upper part of the conference conversation.
Against Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Sept. 3, Missouri should handle business comfortably. The prediction here is a 56-7 win, and Week 1 has largely turned into a formality for Mizzou anyway; the Tigers have won their last two openers against FCS opponents by a combined 106 points.
The next week brings the Border War trip to Kansas on Sept. 11, and that one figures to carry plenty of heat. Even so, the Jayhawks don’t look especially threatening on paper. Missouri is projected to leave Lawrence with a 32-17 win, with the expectation that Kansas is more likely to be battling for bowl eligibility than chasing the Big 12 crown.
A home date with Troy follows, and Missouri is expected to cruise there as well, 42-10. In other words: this should be an undefeated nonconference run for the Tigers.
The real stress test starts with the SEC schedule, beginning Sept. 26 at Mississippi State. That game has upset potential written all over it.
Mississippi State improved last season in Jeff Lebby’s second year, and another jump is possible. The Bulldogs still haven’t won an SEC home game since 2022, but Starkville is not the kind of place Missouri can treat casually.
The call here is Missouri 24, Mississippi State 21.
Florida comes to Columbia on Oct. 3 in what could be one of the biggest games of Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure if the Tigers get through the opening month cleanly. The Gators have enough talent to be dangerous in Jon Sumrall’s first season, and Missouri’s CFP hopes would take a major hit with a loss. The prediction is Missouri 28, Florida 20, with the caveat that the Tigers likely need to start 5-0 to keep the playoff conversation alive.
Texas A&M is next, on Oct. 10 in Columbia, and that’s the first of five preseason top-10 opponents Missouri will face. That stretch alone is enough to make the schedule feel punishing. The Aggies have already given Drinkwitz’s teams some of their roughest days, and until Missouri shows it can handle Mike Elko’s group, the edge goes to Texas A&M, 31-21.
Then comes a trip to Ole Miss on Oct. 17, and that one has the feel of a wild one. The matchup has plenty of storyline fuel, including Austin Simmons’ return along with Cayden Lee and Chris Graves Jr. facing their former team, plus a potential showcase between Ahmad Hardy and former Tiger Kewan Lacy. The prediction is Ole Miss 45, Missouri 38.
After an idle week, Missouri heads to Arkansas on Oct. 31.
The Razorbacks are in rebuild mode under new coach Ryan Silverfield, and the series has been heavily tilted toward the Tigers lately. Missouri is projected to win 31-14, which would give the Tigers their fifth straight victory in the series and 10th in the last 11 meetings.
Texas visits Columbia on Nov. 7, and that game sold out first on Missouri’s home schedule. It’s a chance for Drinkwitz and his team to make a statement against one of the SEC’s heavyweights.
But Texas brings major depth and enough offensive firepower to make the Longhorns a tough pick to knock off. The forecast is Texas 28, Missouri 20.
Georgia comes to Athens on Nov. 14, and Missouri has actually pushed the Bulldogs harder than most teams have in the Kirby Smart era. Still, the Tigers have lost 10 straight in the series, and the prediction is that the streak reaches 11 with Georgia winning 24-13.
Kentucky follows on Nov. 21 in Columbia, and there’s at least a scenario where new coach Will Stein has the Wildcats trending up by then. Even so, Missouri’s home record and the Tigers’ strong track record in the matchup make them the pick here. Missouri is projected to win 28-17.
The regular season ends Nov. 28 at home against Oklahoma, and that one could be Missouri’s best shot at a marquee win. The Sooners shut down the Tigers’ offense in Norman last year and return much of that defensive core, so another efficient showing on that side of the ball feels likely. Missouri’s offense would need to do more than it did in the first meeting, but the prediction is Oklahoma 18, Missouri 15.
In Other News...
Mizzou Opens With Plenty Riding On More Than Just The Score
Missouri will open its 2026 season on Sept. 3 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Faurot Field, and there will be a lot more to watch than the final score. The Tigers are set to unveil a newly renovated stadium after a $250-million overhaul, giving fans their first real look at the updated home environment as the season begins on SEC Network and FUBO.
Austin Simmons is also slated to make his debut as Missouris starting quarterback, but the opener will come with some notable absences. Ahmad Hardy and Cayden Green are both expected to miss the game because of injury, leaving the Tigers to manage their first step into the new season without two key pieces in place. [Read more 🡒]
Mark Mitchell Just Changed Missouri's Outlook In A Huge Way
Mark Mitchells path took a sudden turn this week, and it lands with real significance for Missouri. After initially committing to Kentucky following his gain of a fifth year of eligibility, Mitchell is no longer headed to Lexington and will instead return to Missouri for that extra season. The swing matters because it keeps an experienced forward in the SEC mix while giving Missouri a familiar piece back in a spot where roster stability always carries weight.
The change came after the conference stepped in on intra-conference transfer rules, leaving Kentucky in a difficult spot if Mitchell were to play. For Missouri, the news reshapes the outlook in a positive way, while Kentucky has had to sort out its options at the four, where Ousmane N'Diaye and Justin McBride now sit atop the depth chart and John Calipari may need to consider positional adjustments. Mitchells return closes one door in Lexington and opens another in Columbia, even if the full ripple effects are still unfolding. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Commits Are Already Showing Upside Tigers Fans Will Notice
Several Missouri football commits wasted little time putting their skills on display as the 2026 high school season opened, giving Tigers fans an early glimpse at the class they are building around. Four-star wide receiver commit Lawrence Britt ended up taking snaps at quarterback for his team, and the adjustment did not slow him down much as he piled up yards through the air and on the ground while showing the kind of all-purpose upside that made him such an appealing pledge.
Britt was not the only future Tiger drawing attention on Friday night, either, as Chris Harris Jr., Tre Britton III and quarterback Braylen Warren all turned in notable performances for their respective teams. For Missouri, the encouraging part is not just that the commits were productive, but that several of them are already flashing the sort of versatility and playmaking ability that can translate once they arrive in Columbia. [Read more 🡒]