Missouri basketball is inching closer to a coveted spot in March Madness after securing a pivotal victory over No. 22-ranked Tennessee at Mizzou Arena. With T.O. Barrett lighting up the scoreboard for 28 points and Mark Mitchell adding 23, the Tigers are making their presence felt on the national stage.
Currently, Missouri stands at 19-9 overall and 9-6 in the SEC. While their recent win has boosted their standing with national analysts, they're not quite in the clear yet.
Let’s dive into Missouri’s NCAA Tournament prospects and see where the experts are projecting them for the big dance.
Missouri’s NCAA Tournament Résumé for 2026
- NET Ranking: No. 58
- Quad 1 Record: 5-5
- Quad 2 Record: 4-4
- Quad 3 Record: 2-0
- Quad 4 Record: 8-0
After their victory over Tennessee and the midweek games, Missouri has climbed two spots in the NET rankings. The quadrant system, which considers game location and the opponent’s NET ranking, plays a crucial role in evaluating team performance.
Looking ahead, Missouri’s upcoming road game against No. 97 Mississippi State is classified as a Quad 2 matchup.
ESPN Projection: 10-Seed in St. Louis
ESPN has elevated Missouri to a 10-seed, projecting them to face 7-seed Wisconsin in St. Louis.
If this scenario unfolds, Mizzou would play in its home state, with potential matchups against 2-seed Iowa State or 15-seed Portland State in the Round of 32. These games are part of the Midwest Region, with a path leading to the Sweet 16 in Chicago.
CBS Sports Projection: 9-Seed in Midwest Region
CBS Sports offers a slightly more optimistic view, placing Missouri as a 9-seed. This projection has the Tigers squaring off against 8-seed NC State, with a possible second-round clash against No. 3-ranked Michigan. The SEC’s representation is strong, with teams like Auburn, Georgia, and Texas also in the mix.
USA Today Projection: First Four in Dayton
USA Today takes a different angle, slotting Missouri as an 11-seed in the First Four, facing Ohio State in Dayton. The winner would then meet 6-seed Louisville in Portland, Oregon. This projection underscores that Missouri still needs a couple more wins to secure their tournament berth.
Bart Torvik’s Analysis: Strong Odds for Mizzou
According to Bart Torvik’s analytics, Missouri has a 78.1% chance of making the NCAA Tournament, a significant increase from earlier in the week. These odds are based on 10,000 simulations, reflecting the impact of their win over Tennessee.
Overall, Missouri’s path to March Madness is looking promising, but they’ll need to keep up the momentum to ensure their spot in the tournament. With key games ahead, the Tigers have everything to play for as they aim to dance in March.