Missouri Basketball Enters Must-Win Mode with Mississippi State on Deck
With 10 games left in the regular season, Missouri basketball is officially in crunch time. The Tigers are sitting outside the NCAA Tournament picture, and every game from here on out carries real weight-starting with Saturday’s matchup against Mississippi State at Mizzou Arena.
Missouri (14-7, 4-4 SEC) is coming off a rough night in Tuscaloosa, where a cold shooting performance-8-for-23 from the free throw line and just 4-of-21 from deep-led to a 26-point loss against Alabama. That stumble has left Mizzou needing to regroup fast as the calendar flips to February.
Mississippi State (11-10, 3-5 SEC), meanwhile, snapped a five-game losing streak with a convincing 80-66 win at LSU on Wednesday. The Bulldogs have been up and down, but they’ve shown they can be dangerous, especially when they control the glass. Under second-year head coach Chris Jans, Mississippi State is 2-2 on the road in conference play-so they’re not exactly pushovers away from Starkville.
Let’s break down what to watch heading into this critical SEC clash in Columbia.
Mississippi State’s Calling Card: Rebounding
If there’s one thing Mississippi State hangs its hat on, it’s rebounding. The Bulldogs have been one of the SEC’s most physical teams on the boards since conference play began.
Defensively, they’re elite-ranking second in the SEC in defensive rebounding percentage at 72.3%, according to CBB Analytics. That means they’re limiting second-chance opportunities and ending possessions with authority.
But they don’t stop there. On the offensive glass, they’re just as relentless, reclaiming 33.4% of their own misses. That’s a top-five mark in the league and a major reason they’ve been able to stay competitive despite some shooting struggles.
The catch? Despite all those extra chances, Mississippi State hasn’t exactly been lighting it up offensively.
Their field goal percentage has been underwhelming, and they’re allowing opponents to score at a clip that offsets some of their rebounding dominance. So while they win the battle on the glass, they haven’t always translated that into wins on the scoreboard.
For Missouri, that’s a red flag. Rebounding has been inconsistent for the Tigers lately, and they’ll need to dig in physically to avoid getting overpowered in the paint.
Where Missouri Can Tip the Scales
The good news for Mizzou? Mississippi State’s Achilles heel is from beyond the arc.
Since SEC play began, the Bulldogs have struggled mightily from three-point range-hitting just 25.9% of their attempts. That’s not just cold; that’s bottom-2% in all of Division I. To put it bluntly, they’re one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country right now.
Only two players on their roster are shooting better than 32% from deep, and that limited perimeter threat plays right into Missouri’s hands.
The Tigers, for all their recent issues, have been excellent defending inside the arc. Per CBB Analytics, they rank in the top 10% nationally in two-point defense. That’s a major asset against a team that will likely try to pound the ball inside and crash the boards.
If Missouri can stay disciplined on the perimeter and avoid giving up the rare hot-shooting night to Mississippi State, this is a matchup that leans in their favor.
Player to Watch: Josh Hubbard
Mississippi State may struggle to score as a team, but Josh Hubbard is the exception.
The 6-foot guard has been electric this season, averaging 20.7 points per game-good for top-20 nationally. He’s a volume scorer who’s never met a shot he didn’t like, and only two high-major players take more field goal attempts per game.
Hubbard has hit the 20-point mark in 12 of his 21 games and has only failed to reach double digits twice-one of those games he barely played. He’s not just a scorer; he’s a shotmaker with a deep bag and the confidence to carry the offense.
For Missouri, slowing him down-or at the very least, making him work for every bucket-is going to be a key to victory. Hubbard can swing a game if he gets hot, and the Tigers can’t afford to let him find a rhythm.
The Bottom Line: It’s Now or Never
Let’s not sugarcoat it-Missouri has to win this game. After the blowout loss to Alabama, the Tigers are sliding further out of NCAA Tournament contention. These are the swing games that will define their season.
The matchup favors Mizzou. Mississippi State doesn’t bring the same perimeter firepower that Alabama did, and that should help Missouri keep things close and play to its strengths defensively. But none of that matters if they don’t execute.
This is a must-win, plain and simple. If Missouri wants to keep its March Madness hopes alive, it starts Saturday in Columbia.
Prediction: Missouri 72, Mississippi State 66