Missouri basketball is walking the tightrope right now - and with March creeping closer, the Tigers are still firmly planted on the NCAA Tournament bubble. At 15-7 overall and 5-4 in SEC play, Mizzou has been consistently inconsistent, splitting games for the fourth straight week.
The latest chapter? A blowout loss at Alabama followed by a much-needed bounce-back win over Mississippi State at home.
That win against the Bulldogs kept Missouri’s postseason hopes alive, but it didn’t do much to move the needle in terms of their overall résumé. Now, with just one game on the schedule this week - a road trip to South Carolina on Saturday - every possession, every half, and every result carries a little more weight. This is crunch time for Dennis Gates and his squad.
Breaking Down the Bracket Math
Let’s start with the basics. Missouri currently sits at No. 69 in the NCAA’s NET rankings - not exactly where you want to be if you're trying to avoid a nail-biting Selection Sunday. The Tigers’ resume is a mixed bag:
- Quad 1: 3-4
- Quad 2: 0-3
- Quad 3: 3-0
- Quad 4: 9-0
The quadrant system, for those unfamiliar, weighs wins and losses based on opponent quality and game location. Quad 1 wins are the gold standard - think road wins against top-75 NET teams or home wins against top-30 opponents. Missouri’s loss at Alabama fits into that Quad 1 bucket, while their win over Mississippi State - currently sitting at No. 94 in the NET - is a Quad 3 result.
Even more frustrating for Mizzou fans? That double-overtime win over Oklahoma, once considered a solid Quad 2 victory, has slipped into Quad 3 territory thanks to the Sooners’ slide in the rankings. That’s the kind of résumé hit that can sting come March.
Where the Bracketologists Have Missouri
USA Today has Missouri clinging to hope, placing the Tigers in the dreaded First Four Out category. That means they're just outside the 68-team field - essentially ranked between 69 and 72.
Mizzou is the fourth team out, trailing Miami, Virginia Tech, and Seton Hall. The last four teams currently projected in the field by USA Today?
UCLA, New Mexico, Ohio State, and Santa Clara - all programs Missouri will need to keep tabs on down the stretch.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, one of the most well-known names in bracketology, has Missouri just a step further back. His latest projections list the Tigers as the top team in the Next Four Out, making them the fifth team out overall (Nos.
73-76). That puts them behind Virginia Tech, California, Seton Hall, and Santa Clara.
The last four teams Lunardi has in the field are USC, Ohio State, San Diego State, and Texas. Translation: the Tigers are in striking distance, but they need wins - and probably some help.
CBS Sports offers a more optimistic outlook. Their latest bracket has Missouri sneaking into the field as one of the Last Four In, which would send them to Dayton for a First Four matchup.
In this scenario, Mizzou would be an 11-seed facing Seton Hall, with Saint Mary’s and New Mexico also part of that Dayton quartet. It’s not ideal, but it’s a ticket to the dance - and that’s all that matters in March.
The Analytics Angle
Bart Torvik’s T-Ranketology model, which runs thousands of simulations to project the NCAA Tournament field, currently gives Missouri a 16.6% chance of making it in. That’s down slightly from 17.1% a week ago - a reflection of Missouri’s up-and-down week. In Torvik’s rankings, the Tigers are the sixth team out, making them the top SEC team currently on the outside looking in.
So, what’s the path forward?
What’s Next for Mizzou
The Tigers only have one game this week, but it’s a big one: a road tilt against South Carolina. Not only is it another opportunity to add a quality win to the résumé, but it’s also a chance to avoid a damaging loss.
Every game from here on out is high-stakes. The margin for error is razor-thin.
Missouri’s biggest challenge isn’t just winning - it’s winning the right games. The Tigers need to find a way to pick up another Quad 1 victory or two and, just as importantly, avoid any slip-ups against lower-tier opponents. They’ve been solid in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games so far, but the lack of success in Quad 2 (0-3) is a glaring hole that needs patching.
The good news? The SEC schedule still offers chances to move the needle.
The bad news? Mizzou has to capitalize - and fast.
Selection Sunday is coming. And if Missouri wants to hear its name called, it’s time to string together some statement wins.
The bubble is a tough place to live. But with the right combination of grit, execution, and maybe a little help from the scoreboard gods, the Tigers still have a shot to dance.