Kansas heads into Friday’s showdown with Missouri carrying the kind of underdog label that would have felt unthinkable a decade ago, but ESPN’s Matchup Predictor still sees a live path for the Jayhawks.
The numbers lean toward the Tigers, of course. ESPN gives Missouri a 63.2% chance to win and Kansas a 36.8% shot, which is still a noticeable jump from the 28.0% chance the Jayhawks were given before the season began. That shift reflects a few things working in KU’s favor, including Ahmad Hardy’s expected absence and Isaiah Marshall’s strong debut as a starter under center.
Even with that uptick, Missouri enters Lawrence as the more complete team. The No. 23-ranked Tigers are considered one of the better programs in the SEC, and they’re set to get future NFL offensive tackle Cayden Green back from injury this week. From a neutral viewpoint, the edge is easy to understand: Missouri has the bigger, faster athletes, a more established defense, and a quarterback with higher expectations.
Still, rivalry games have a way of ignoring the usual logic. Kansas already showed last year that it could hang around, even in a 42-31 loss to Missouri.
Lance Leipold’s team stayed within striking distance for three quarters before the Tigers pulled away. Friday’s meeting carries even more weight for KU, which is trying to snap one of the three ugly losing streaks it will be chasing down in 2026.
The Jayhawks will also be trying to build on the momentum from their season opener, a 52-point outing that still came with some rough patches. Kansas managed only six points in the first quarter and also stalled on a turnover on downs, the kind of early missteps that can’t survive against an SEC-caliber defense.
So while Missouri has the clearer resume and the better roster on paper, Kansas still has a puncher’s chance at home. The crowd will be behind the Jayhawks, and if they can clean up the mistakes, this one could stay close deep into the night. The one question that lingers is whether KU’s staff can finally flip the script in a tight game, something it hasn’t done well over the past two years.
In Other News...
Mizzou Returns To Kansas With A Border War Streak Under Pressure
The Border War has always carried more weight than an ordinary rivalry, and this trip to Lawrence brings a reminder of how deep the history runs between Missouri and Kansas. The matchup reaches back to the violent clashes of the 1850s and early 1860s, long before the football series began in 1890, and now the two schools are set to meet for the 122nd time. For Missouri, it is also the first visit to Lawrence since 2005, which adds a layer of novelty to a rivalry that already has plenty of baggage.
Missouri enters with the edge in the series and a four-game winning streak, but the Tigers recent success has not carried over to this venue. Missouri has not won in Lawrence since 2001, and that history hangs over a game that means more than just another nonconference date. Even with the Tigers holding the better overall record in the rivalry, this return to Kansas brings pressure that comes from both the past and the setting. [Read more 🡒]
Missouri Just Got A Week 2 Rivalry Call Fans Will Hate
Week 2 always has a way of sharpening the nerves, and Missouri is already part of one of the more intriguing discussions in the early-season upset forecast. The roundup leans on recent performances, coaching changes and player evaluations to sort through the matchups that could tilt, with several familiar names getting a close look as potential roadblocks in a college football slate that rarely goes exactly to script.
For Missouri fans, the uneasy part is where the conversation lands in the Border War frame, with a neighboring rival showing up as a live upset candidate in the same kind of speculative projection that also includes Michigan, Memphis and Iowa State. It is not a result, just a read on what could happen, but those are the kinds of calls that tend to linger because they turn a routine September week into a test of confidence before anyone has even taken the field. [Read more 🡒]
Missouri Faces A Border Showdown Twist That Could Decide Everything
The Border Showdown is set to return soon, giving Missouri and Kansas another shot at one of college footballs old regional rivalries, and this one arrives with plenty of uncertainty baked in. It will be the second meeting since Missouri joined the SEC, and it comes in Lawrence at a stadium still working through renovations, which only adds to the odd feel around a game that already carries more edge than most nonconference matchups.
Missouri is still sorting through its backfield situation, while Kansas has injury questions of its own heading into a game that could hinge on how two inexperienced quarterbacks handle the pressure. Isaiah Marshall and Austin Simmons are both being asked to step into a spotlight that can turn quickly in a rivalry like this, and the availability of key playmakers on each side may end up shaping which team has the cleaner path when the hits start coming. [Read more 🡒]