Greg McElroy is siding with Florida in one of Week 5’s biggest SEC matchups, and he’s doing it for a simple reason: the Gators have more ways to hurt Missouri than the Tigers have to stop them.
On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy predicted No. 8 Florida would beat No.
25 Missouri, 31-24, in Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET game on ABC.
He pointed to Florida’s balance and Missouri’s issues in the red zone as the combination that tilts the matchup.
“Florida has a deeper offense,” he said, “and Missouri's red zone issues, that's something that's difficult to overcome in this game.”
Florida arrives on a surge after jumping from No. 21 to No. 8 in the Top 25 poll following a 52-28 win over No. 4 Ole Miss. Missouri, meanwhile, dropped from No. 19 to No. 25 after giving up the final 14 points in a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State.
“So, for Missouri, this is got-to-have-it mode, given what's coming up here in the next few weeks,” McElroy said.
McElroy said he has been high on Florida since the summer, when he said the Gators could play spoiler in the 2026 Playoff race. And the reason he keeps circling back to Florida starts with running back Jadan Baugh.
The junior from Atlanta has been a wrecking ball through four games, piling up 600 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Against Ole Miss, he ran for 142 yards and three scores, stretching his streak of 100-yard games to five straight. McElroy noted that only Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor had done that at Florida.
He also framed Missouri’s run defense as the defense’s best answer to Florida’s best weapon. The Tigers have stopped 45 runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, a number McElroy said ranks in the top six nationally.
“Missouri's best unit against Florida's best player,” he said.
Still, McElroy believes the game may come down to what happens when Florida puts the ball in the air. Quarterback Aaron Philo has completed 72% of his passes for 917 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions, but Florida throws only 26 times per game, a figure McElroy said ranks 103rd.
“If Missouri can somehow hold Jadan Baugh under three yards a carry, then it goes squarely on Philo's shoulders, and we haven't seen it just yet,” McElroy said.
On the other side, McElroy highlighted Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons, who has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions, along with receiver Cayden Lee, who had 156 receiving yards at Mississippi State. That, in McElroy’s view, is where the Tigers can really threaten Florida.
He said Florida is allowing about 250 passing yards per game, and Ole Miss threw for 298 against the Gators. That sets up what he sees as Missouri’s best path.
“So, if Missouri is at, say, 300 passing yards, they have a real chance to potentially win the game,” McElroy said.
Florida may also have another piece back in the mix. Vernell Brown III leads the Gators with 17 catches for 271 yards, and Florida head coach Jon Sumrall said the knee injury Brown suffered against Ole Miss is a mild strain.
McElroy ultimately took Florida by seven, and he leaned on one more stat to explain why. Sumrall is 36-1 when his team has more red zone trips than the opponent, and McElroy said Florida scores touchdowns on five of every six trips inside the 20.
“I just think Florida has way too many ways to deliver the big haymaker and the knockout blow with how they run the football,” McElroy said.
A Florida win would push the Gators to 5-0 overall and 3-0 in conference play. A Missouri loss would drop the Tigers to 0-2 in the league.
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