Florida walks into Saturday’s trip to Missouri with real momentum and a spot near the top of the national conversation. The No.
8 Gators are undefeated, they’ve already knocked off Ole Miss, Auburn, Campbell and FAU, and three of those wins came by at least 24 points. Now they’re laying 5.5 points on the road against the No.
25 Tigers in a Week 5 SEC matchup.
That number makes sense when you look at what Florida has become under Jon Sumrall. The Gators have completely flipped the script in his first season, and the offense has been the driving force.
Florida is No. 1 in the country in EPA/Play on offense, with the No. 1 EPA/Pass and No.
5 EPA/Rush. That kind of balance is a problem for just about anyone, and it’s especially dangerous for a Missouri team that’s already shown cracks in its first real test.
The Tigers are coming off their first loss of the season, a Week 4 defeat to Mississippi State and star quarterback Kamario Taylor. Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons still put up numbers in that game, throwing for 295 yards, and he’s had a strong season overall.
Simmons has 947 passing yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception through four games, while completing 65.4 percent of his throws. Even so, the Missouri offense has been more of a pass-driven operation, ranking tied for 35th in offensive success rate on pass plays and outside the top 100 in success rate on run plays.
That split matters here because Florida’s defense has been vulnerable against the run, but Missouri hasn’t exactly been built to punish that weakness on the ground. The Gators are outside the top 100 in EPA/Play defensively and rank 130th in EPA/Rush, while Missouri sits 107th in EPA/Rush and 104th in run play success rate.
Florida’s own ground game has been a wrecking ball, and Jadan Baugh is the name that jumps off the page. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per carry, with 83 rushes turning into 600 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Baugh and Duke Clark have given Florida a true one-two punch in the backfield, and the Gators rank No. 5 in EPA/Rush and No. 18 in run play success rate. Baugh has only two catches, but he’s handling more than 20 carries per game and should be in line for another heavy workload against a Missouri defense that is just 52nd in EPA/Rush in 2026.
Baugh’s production has already outpaced what he did last season, when he ran for 1,170 yards and eight scores. He’s already passed that touchdown total, and if this pace holds, the yardage mark won’t be far behind.
I was skeptical about Florida before Week 4, especially after the Gators barely survived Auburn in their SEC opener. But they answered that with a convincing win over an Ole Miss team that had beaten LSU the week before, and that result changed the tone around this team fast.
That’s why Florida being favored in Columbia doesn’t feel like a reach. Missouri has to find answers after its first loss, but the burden is clearly on Simmons, and Florida’s offense looks like too much firepower for the Tigers to absorb for four quarters.
Florida is firmly in the College Football Playoff mix, and a road win here would only strengthen that case.
In Other News...
Mizzou's Pass Rush Suddenly Looks Like A Major Florida Concern
Missouris defensive front took on a different look last week, and now the Tigers have to wait to see whether it changes again before Florida comes to Columbia on Saturday. Eli Drinkwitz said starting edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen are questionable for homecoming, with Smith dealing with a lower-leg injury from a previous game and Kitchen leaving early last time out because of a lower-body issue. In their absence, sophomore Daeden Hopkins has handled more of the edge-rushing load, giving Missouri at least one answer if the depth chart stays in flux.
The timing matters because this is the sort of spot where the Tigers usually need their pass rush at full strength, especially at Memorial Stadium against an SEC opponent that will spend the week preparing for pressure off the edge. Missouri now has a short runway to get healthy, and the next practice stretch will go a long way toward clarifying how much of that original rotation is available when Florida arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Fans Are Debating Eli Drinkwitzs Biggest Late-Game Decision
Late in Missouris loss at Mississippi State, a spot on fourth-and-1 became the kind of call that lingers long after the final whistle. The Bulldogs were given the first down, and Eli Drinkwitz let the play stand after hearing it had already been cleared in the booth, choosing to preserve his timeouts instead of throwing the flag.
The decision became a flash point because the sequence soon swung the game for good, with Mississippi State tying things at 24-24 before pulling away for a 31-24 win. For Missouri, it was a frustrating SEC opener that dropped the Tigers to 3-1 overall and left fans wondering whether the late-game gamble should have gone the other way. [Read more 🡒]
Mizzou Suddenly Has No Margin For Error Against Florida
Eli Drinkwitz spent the days after Missouris first loss of the season talking through the kinds of issues that can quietly flip a game before it ever settles in. The slow start at Mississippi State, the missed chances and the tackling problems all came up as the Tigers turned the page toward Florida, with Drinkwitz stressing that one setback does not define the season. He also pointed to the value of special teams and the way some younger defensive pieces have started to emerge, both of which have helped Missouri stay afloat even when the offense has been behind the curve.
Now the focus shifts to a Florida matchup that feels less forgiving by the day, because the margin for error has tightened in a hurry. Missouri still has areas it can lean on, but there are also personnel questions hanging over the week and a depth chart that will be worth watching right up to kickoff. For a team trying to steady itself after its first stumble, the next step is less about style points than surviving the kind of game that can turn on one or two small decisions. [Read more 🡒]