It’s Week 3, and the upset board is starting to fill up.
Last week came with a near miss and one clean hit. Michigan came through as a +203 play, Iowa State came up just short as a +488 underdog against Iowa, and both Kansas and Memphis stayed in the fight into the third quarter before fading late.
Here are five money line favorites I’m targeting as vulnerable in college football.
Houston over Texas Tech
This one comes down to the numbers. Texas Tech has not done enough to justify laying more than a touchdown against a Houston team that looks capable of winning this outright. The Cougars strike me as the better-coached side, and they may have the better offense, too.
Texas Tech’s early season profile is shaky. The Red Raiders rank 103rd nationally in yards per carry even after opening with Oregon State and Abilene Christian, and the defense has not exactly carried them either, sitting 69th in yards per play allowed.
Pick: Houston to win (27% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +270
Mississippi State over South Carolina
This matchup has been tagged as the Kamario Taylor-LaNorris Sellers bowl, and it also comes with a quirky family tie: Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby is married to the sister of South Carolina offensive coordinator Kendal Briles.
On the field, I’m siding with Mississippi State because I’m much higher on Taylor than Sellers. The Bulldogs also flashed a level of play on the road in Week 2 that I think can travel again in Columbia.
Pick: Mississippi State to win (39% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +156
North Carolina over Clemson
North Carolina has issues of its own, but Clemson has looked even less put together so far in 2026. Bringing Chad Morris back as offensive coordinator already looks like the kind of move that can backfire badly, and Clemson’s defensive talent isn’t what it used to be either.
Even in Death Valley, this feels closer to a pick ’em than the market suggests. Clemson has also been unreliable at home in ACC games, going 7-5 straight up and 5-7 ATS since the start of 2023.
Pick: North Carolina to win (40% on Novig) | Implied odds: +150
Colorado over Northwestern
I’d have Colorado favored here. Northwestern has only played once this season, and that came against South Dakota State. In that game, the Wildcats allowed nearly five yards per play, and quarterback Aidan Chiles completed 14 of 24 passes.
There are reasons Northwestern is getting support - the bye week and home field. But I’m not giving the rest edge much weight this early in the season, especially since Colorado also faced an FCS opponent last week. And the home-field boost should be limited with Northwestern’s new stadium still a few weeks away from opening.
Pick: Colorado to win (38% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +163
Stanford over Duke
Duke earned plenty of praise for beating Illinois last week, but that result may say more about the Fighting Illini than the Blue Devils. I don’t think Duke is strong enough to be a 3-to-1 favorite over any Power 4 team, and that includes Stanford on the other side of the country for this ACC game.
Stanford was blown out by Miami in Week 1, but it had the week off to regroup before this trip east. I also liked what the Cardinal showed on offense in Week 0 against Hawai’i, and I see Duke’s defense as being much closer to Hawai’i than Miami.
Pick: Stanford to win
In Other News...
Georgia Is Suddenly Part Of A Crowded SEC Quarterback Race
CBS Sports latest weekly quarterback rankings only reinforced what this SEC season already feels like: there is no clear pecking order at the position, and the conference is packed with players forcing their way into the conversation. Trinidad Chambliss sits No. 2 overall and first among SEC quarterbacks, with Arch Manning right behind him at No. 3, while Gunner Stockton, Kamario Taylor and Austin Simmons also cracked the top 10.
For Mississippi State fans, Simmons inclusion is the part worth watching most closely, because it keeps the Bulldogs in the middle of a quarterback discussion that is suddenly crowded with league heavyweights. When five SEC passers land in the same top-10 ranking, it says plenty about the depth at the position across the conference, and it only raises the stakes for every game these quarterbacks still have ahead of them. [Read more 🡒]
Kamario Taylor Has Mississippi State Fans Dreaming About The SEC Opener
Kamario Taylor has given Mississippi State a real early-season lift, and it comes at a time when the Bulldogs are about to find out a lot more about themselves. After two games, the quarterback has been efficient and productive, completing 67.9% of his passes for 581 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception while also adding production on the ground. For a program that has been searching for momentum, that kind of start naturally gets people looking ahead to the first SEC test.
South Carolina comes to Starkville in Week 3 to open conference play for both teams, and Mississippi State has enough going for it on both sides of the ball to at least make the matchup interesting. The Bulldogs have shown enough offensive punch and defensive competence to suggest an upset is within reach, but the real question is whether Taylor and the rest of the team can carry that early confidence into an SEC setting, where the margin for error shrinks fast. [Read more 🡒]