Mississippi State is walking into a brutal numbers game Saturday night in Austin.
Every major projection points the same direction, and it is not a comforting read for Bulldogs fans. Texas enters as the heavy favorite, and the gap between the two teams on paper has only widened as the season has gone on.
The game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. CT at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, with ESPN carrying the broadcast.
Bulldogs fans can also follow along on the Bulldogs Sports Network. Texas leads the all-time series 4-2, and FanDuel listed the Longhorns as 20.5-point favorites with the over/under at 48.5 total points.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has Texas at No. 8 in the country after Week 8, while Mississippi State checks in at No. 40.
Within the SEC, only Arkansas at No. 59 and Vanderbilt at No. 68 sit lower than the Bulldogs. Missouri comes in at No. 28 and Auburn at No. 29, both ahead of Mississippi State in the model.
That outlook has been in place for a while. In August, FPI gave Texas a 95.8% chance to win this matchup on Oct. 31, and nothing that has happened since then has moved Mississippi State any closer.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ paints the same picture, only in more detail. Texas sits eighth overall with a 20.4 rating, while Mississippi State is 52nd at 6.0. That comes out to a difference of more than 14 points per game against an average opponent, though the model is careful not to pretend that one game will always follow the script.
The biggest concern for Mississippi State is obvious: its offense running into Texas’ defense. The Bulldogs are 35th in offensive SP+, which is solid, but Texas has the No. 7 defense in the country and is allowing an adjusted 14.5 points per game in Connelly’s system.
The other side of the ball does not offer much comfort either. Texas owns the No. 16 offense in SP+, while Mississippi State’s defense ranks 68th.
Dimers’ most recent published model is even more direct, giving Texas a 93.3% chance to win and projecting a 36-15 finish. That sort of margin is a big ask for Mississippi State, especially against a Texas team that just survived Oklahoma and still rates as one of the country’s strongest home sides.
There are, however, some moving parts that the models do not fully capture. Mississippi State announced that quarterback Kamario Taylor will need season-ending surgery, and coach Jeff Lebby addressed the decision Wednesday after the procedure.
“Like we said in the statement, it was something that was a team decision with everybody involved,” Lebby said. “It was the right thing to do. Kamario did everything he could to be able to stay on the field and get back on the field, but it was the right thing.”
Texas is dealing with its own personnel issues. Edge rusher Colin Simmons and running back Hollywood Smothers did not play against Ole Miss, and two more starters were barely on the field.
“We essentially played the entire game without Trevor Goosby, and the majority of the game without Cam Coleman,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “And we played the number seven ranked team in the country and won by a touchdown.”
So while the analytics leave Mississippi State with very little room for optimism, the game still has two variables that can’t be neatly fed into a model: a banged-up Texas roster and a Bulldogs team with nothing to lose.
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One of the biggest names in that conversation is receiver Cam Coleman, who appears on track after leaving the Ole Miss game with a shoulder injury. On the other side, edge rusher Colin Simmons is less certain after dealing with a high ankle sprain suffered against Florida, and his status could matter as Texas tries to protect its postseason position in front of a home crowd. [Read more 🡒]