Week 5 is loaded with upset chances, and the board starts with a big swing: Mississippi State over Alabama.
That’s the headliner, and it comes with real conviction. Mississippi State has been a favorite play all season, and the case starts with the numbers.
The Bulldogs sit 19th nationally in adjusted EPA per play and own a net success rate of +7.8%. Alabama is obviously no pushover, but Mississippi State has the kind of difference-maker that can tilt a game: quarterback Kamario Taylor, who is viewed here as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.
The call is simple from there - Mississippi State is positioned to land one of the biggest wins in program history.
There’s another SEC upset worth circling too, and this one is framed as a bolder play: Auburn over Tennessee.
The advanced metrics don’t separate these teams much. Auburn and Tennessee are ranked 37th and 38th in adjusted net EPA per play, and Auburn actually has the edge in net success rate, sitting at +4.8% to Tennessee’s +1.7%.
The matchup also leans toward the Tigers because Tennessee relies heavily on the run, ranking in the top 30 in run-play percentage, while Auburn has been solid against it, ranking 25th in opponent yards per carry at 3.1 and 33rd in opponent rush success rate. If you’re looking for a live underdog, Auburn at Rocky Top is the one to consider.
Kentucky is the third upset pick, and this one is built on profile and price. The Wildcats have been better in the numbers overall, checking in 32nd in net adjusted EPA per play compared to South Carolina at 40th.
Kentucky also leans on the run more than most teams, and that matters because South Carolina has had trouble slowing it down, allowing 4.0 yards per carry and ranking 69th in opponent rush EPA. Even with the Gamecocks at home, the recommendation here is to take the better team if the moneyline is offering plus-money.
After going 1-for-3 on upset picks last week, with Iowa correctly predicted to beat Michigan in a Big Ten matchup, the focus now shifts to Saturday’s slate and the three favorites on the upset board: Mississippi State over Alabama, Auburn over Tennessee, and Kentucky over South Carolina.
In Other News...
Kamario Taylor Just Addressed Mississippi State Rumors Before Alabama
Kamario Taylor has spent the last stretch doing what Mississippi State needed most: settling the offense and keeping the focus on football. With the Bulldogs preparing for Alabama, the quarterback has also been answering a different kind of pressure, one that comes with a fast start and immediate outside attention. Tied for the FBS lead in touchdown passes, Taylor has become one of the bigger storylines around Starkville, and not just because of what he has done on the field.
Taylor has publicly brushed aside transfer speculation and made clear he wants to stay with Mississippi State and finish what he started. For a program trying to build momentum while staring down one of the toughest opponents on the schedule, that kind of message matters almost as much as the production. The Bulldogs can use the stability, but with rumors always lingering around productive quarterbacks, the next few weeks will say plenty about how firm that commitment really is. [Read more 🡒]
Mississippi State Finally Gets Its Chance To Prove This Start Is Real
Mississippi States rise has been impossible to ignore, and the Bulldogs have already earned a milestone that had been a long time coming. By beating No. 19 Missouri, they snapped a 12-year drought in ranked-vs.-ranked wins and pushed themselves to No. 16, turning what looked like an encouraging start into something with a little more weight behind it.
Now comes the kind of game that can tell everyone whether this really is a leap forward. Mississippi State heads into an SEC matchup with No. 7 Alabama, a meeting of unbeaten teams that brings even more attention to quarterback Keelon Russell on the Crimson Tide side and Kamario Taylor for the Bulldogs. For Mississippi State, it is a chance to show the Missouri win was more than a good night, and that the ranking reflects something sustainable. [Read more 🡒]
Floridas Early Rise Under Jon Sumrall Has Fans Asking One Thing
Through the first month of the season, Mississippi State has already pushed its way into the national conversation, and not just because of its undefeated start. ESPN analyst Greg McElroy singled out the Bulldogs as one of five surprising teams through Week 4, pointing to the kind of early SEC success that tends to change how the rest of the league looks at you. The latest AP poll backed up the attention, with Mississippi State among the teams landing in the Week 5 rankings.
The company on McElroys list adds to the intrigue, especially Floridas fast climb under first-year coach Jon Sumrall and Oklahoma States rebound after an opening loss. For Mississippi State, the question is no longer whether the Bulldogs have gotten peoples attention. It is how long they can keep forcing their way into that same conversation as the schedule tightens and every week starts to mean a little more. [Read more 🡒]