Welcome to Week 9 DFS pick ’em predictions.
We kept the momentum rolling last week with two hits, while the third play got voided after Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson was ultimately ruled out. Since Week 6, this column has now strung together eight straight wins.
Here are three more DFS pick ’em predictions for the Week 9 slate.
Ole Miss wide receiver Deuce Alexander comes in lower than 87.5 receiving yards
Alexander has gone below this number in each of his last three games, and the profile helps explain why. He owns just over a 24% target share in the Ole Miss offense, which is solid but not dominant.
When the ball does come his way, he’s catching about 68% of those targets on roughly nine looks per game. That’s good production, but not the kind that screams automatic ceiling game.
He’s not relying purely on splash plays, either. His average depth of target sits around 10 yards, and his explosive reception rate is below average at 19%.
In two of five games, Alexander accounted for under 30% of Ole Miss’s receiving yards. Even in two other games during that stretch, he still finished below 87.5 receiving yards.
Iowa State running back Aiden Flora comes in lower than 81.5 rushing yards
Flora has put together a huge season, but the numbers are padded by two blowout-style performances against West Virginia and Bowling Green. More than 400 of his 716 rushing yards have come in those two games alone.
Against better competition, the production has been more modest: 4.7 yards per carry versus Iowa, 4.2 against Utah, 5.1 against BYU and 3 against Arizona. Oklahoma State’s run defense isn’t elite, but it’s nowhere near the level of West Virginia or Bowling Green, both of which rank outside the top 100 nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed.
If Flora is sitting around 4.5 yards per carry in this matchup, he’d need about 19 carries to get past this line. He’s reached that carry total only twice in seven games this season.
Iowa State also has quarterback Jaylen Raynor eating into the rushing pie, with 45 true rushes on the year. And with the Cyclones listed as 9.5-point underdogs, the game script points toward more passing in the second half.
Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell comes in lower than 66.5 rushing yards
Bothwell is a quality back, but the setup is rough for him and Mississippi State, especially without Kamario Taylor. The betting market is pointing to roughly 15 points for the Bulldogs, which doesn’t leave much room for a big day on the ground.
Texas brings an elite rushing defense to the table, so Bothwell could easily be held closer to 3 yards per carry than the 5.6 he’s posted this season. There’s also the injury report to consider, since Bothwell has been listed on it this month. If Mississippi State falls behind by 20 or more, it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll even keep seeing meaningful carries in the second half.
In Other News...
Mississippi State Heads To Texas With One Upset Question Looming
Mississippi State heads to Austin on Oct. 31 with a fresh layer of uncertainty at quarterback after Kamario Taylors season-ending foot injury forced the Bulldogs to reshuffle the position. Billy Puckett or AJ Swann is expected to get the nod, giving Mississippi State a very different look as it prepares to face a top-15 Texas team on the road.
Arch Manning will make his third career start for the Longhorns, who remain favored even with key players sidelined by injuries of their own. For Mississippi State, the challenge is bigger than just matching up with a ranked opponent - it is about finding stability quickly enough to keep the game within reach. [Read more 🡒]
Mississippi State Enters Texas Test With One Huge Question Unsettled
Mississippi State heads into its first game since Kamario Taylor underwent season-ending foot surgery with the quarterback spot suddenly back at center stage. With Taylor out, Billy Puckett and A.J. Swann are battling for the start against Texas, and the Bulldogs have kept the competition close enough that the answer will not come until late Saturday.
For a team trying to reset on the fly, the timing adds another layer to a tough road trip. Texas brings its own intrigue with Arch Manning, who has flashed enough this season to keep people watching even if he has not fully lived up to the early hype, so Mississippi States weekend storyline is as much about its own uncertainty as the opponent on the other side. [Read more 🡒]
Mississippi State's Skid Is Raising Bigger Questions Before Texas
Mississippi States loss to Oklahoma did more than extend a frustrating slide. It pushed the Bulldogs deeper into a statistical spiral at a time when the schedule is about to get even less forgiving, with Texas next on the list. The concerns are spread across both sides of the ball, from total offense and turnover margin to sacks allowed, and the picture that has emerged is one of a team still searching for consistency in just about every phase.
The defensive numbers may be the sharpest warning sign. Mississippi State has dropped near the bottom of the SEC and the national rankings in several key categories, and the issues in coverage have become especially hard to ignore. Offensively, the Bulldogs have also struggled to stay on schedule and sustain drives, leaving them with a three-game losing streak and a growing sense that the fixes need to come quickly before the Longhorns arrive. [Read more 🡒]