The Minnesota Wild have made their bet on Michael McCarron, but the way they’re lining him up may be asking for trouble.
Bill Guerin paid a second-round pick to get the 6-foot-6 center at the trade deadline, then the Wild doubled down with a six-year contract after McCarron turned in a strong playoff run. That postseason showed him at his best: fast, physical, and relentless on the forecheck.
Even so, the new deal has drawn plenty of skepticism. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn listed it as one of five honorable mentions on his annual 10 Worst NHL Contracts list, then expanded on the point while grading team contract efficiency: "[McCarron's $3.33 AAV] is what the market dictates, but I don’t believe he’s the quality of 4C that warrants."
The issue, though, is that McCarron isn’t being slotted as a fourth-line center. Michael Russo and Joe Smith wrote last week, "The physical, faceoff-winning veteran will almost certainly open the season as the third-line center." That’s where the concern really kicks in, because the third line asks for more than McCarron naturally gives.
He already got pushed into that role in last year’s playoffs after Joel Eriksson Ek ’s injury knocked him out for the second round. McCarron handled it well enough that Minnesota even bumped him up to Matt Boldy ’s second line after Danila Yurov struggled against the Colorado Avalanche.
But thriving in a pinch is one thing. Being the plan for 82 games is another.
McCarron does bring real value. He forechecks hard, kills penalties, and can help wear teams down.
The problem is that contenders usually want more offense from their third-line center, not less. The Carolina Hurricanes had Jordan Staal, the Vegas Golden Knights had William Karlsson, and even the Colorado Avalanche got third-line scoring from Nicolas Roy, who has hit 30 points in a season multiple times.
That’s not McCarron’s profile. Since becoming a full-time NHL player, he’s averaged 10 goals and 19 points per 82 games.
Over the last three seasons, his offense has graded out slightly below replacement level. And at 31, there’s no reason to expect a major offensive jump.
The role itself matters, too. A fourth-line center can be sheltered.
A third-line center usually can’t. Once Yurov had the job on a regular basis, he averaged 12 minutes, 53 seconds of 5-on-5 ice time per game.
McCarron’s time in Minnesota was 10:21 a night. That difference is real, and it changes what coaches can hide and what they can’t.
If McCarron opens as the third-line center, he’ll likely be playing with skilled linemates such as Ryan Hartman, Bobby Brink, or Maksim Shabanov. The problem is that he’s not a shooter, not much of a playmaker, and not someone who reliably carries the puck through the neutral zone or into the offensive end. His size helps him recover pucks in the defensive zone, but even then, the puck doesn’t always stay with him once he gets it back.
In practical terms, the Wild would be asking him to forecheck, win possession, get to the net, and live off rebounds and tips. That’s useful work. It’s just not enough on its own if the rest of the line isn’t producing.
The power-play talk is even harder to square. Russo and Smith floated McCarron as a candidate to absorb some of Mats Zuccarello’s vacated power-play time, noting, "We know he can win draws, so he may make sense in the neutral zone or defensive zone the way Jordan Staal often takes faceoffs with Carolina and then heads directly to the bench," before adding, "But in the offensive zone, if they win the draw, where does he play?"
That comparison only goes so far. Staal is a much better faceoff man, winning 56.0% of his draws since joining the Hurricanes during the 2012-13 season and 64.0% on the power play.
McCarron’s career mark is 52.7%, and he’s won 35 of 75 power-play faceoffs, or 46.7%. The sample is small, but it doesn’t point to Staal-level utility.
Staal also brings more offense. He scored 20 goals last year and has averaged 16.4 goals per 82 games in his 30s, roughly double McCarron’s rate. And even with Joel Eriksson Ek also crowding the net-front mix, McCarron doesn’t really profile as a top-tier power-play presence.
None of this erases what McCarron did in 11 postseason games. The Wild have every reason to feel good about that stretch. But 381 regular-season games tell a different story, one that suggests he may be stretched if he’s asked to live in a third-line role from opening night onward.
There’s also a broader roster issue here. Brink, Hartman, Shabanov, and Danila Yurov could all wind up in spots that are too ambitious for them, and Jared Spurgeon is projected for a top-four role after showing signs of decline in his late 30s. Minnesota has room to improve those assignments.
Still, the easiest fix is right in front of them. The Wild can push McCarron down by moving either Hartman or Yurov to center the third line, depending on who wins the top-line job. That would solve a potential scoring problem and put McCarron in the kind of role where he’s most likely to succeed.
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Wild Prospect Charlie Stramel Just Entered Minnesotas Biggest Center Debate
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