The Minnesota Wild will try to bounce back Thursday night when they host the St. Louis Blues at Grand Casino Arena.
Puck drop is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with Minnesota coming off a 5-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets and St.
Louis rolling in after a 7-2 win over the Ottawa Senators.
The numbers point toward a tight game with goals on both sides, but the edge goes to the Wild. The computer projection has Minnesota taking it 4-2, and the recommended plays line up with that read: Wild on the moneyline at -166, Wild -1.5 on the spread, and Over 5.5 with an expected total of 5.9 goals.
Minnesota has been a different team when it gets production. The Wild are 4-0-0 when they score at least three goals, and they’ve hit that mark four times already this season. They’ve also done well when they control the shot count, going 3-1-0 in the four games where they outshot their opponent.
There’s a clear story in the split data, too. When the Wild have scored exactly two goals, they’re 0-2-1. In overtime, they sit at -1-1, and in the three games where opponents have held the shot advantage, Minnesota has gone 1-1-1.
St. Louis has its own pattern.
The Blues have won all three of the games in which they’ve scored three or more goals, but they’re 0-1-1 in the two contests where they’ve landed on exactly two. They’ve also lost the one game in which they managed just a single goal.
When the Blues outshoot teams, they’ve gone 2-1-0, and when they’ve been outshot, they’ve still managed to collect three points in three such games.
The stat sheet tilts Minnesota’s way in key areas. The Wild are averaging 3.00 goals per game, compared with 3.50 for St.
Louis, but Minnesota’s defense has been sharper, allowing 2.29 goals per game to the Blues’ 3.00. The Wild also bring the league’s best power play at 36.84%, along with a 91.67% penalty kill that ranks fourth.
St. Louis sits at 14.29% on the power play and 89.47% on the penalty kill.
On the shot numbers, Minnesota averages 27.7 shots per game and allows 26.9, while St. Louis averages 26.0 shots and allows 24.8. The Blues rank 19th in shots per game and 7th in shots allowed, while the Wild rank 13th and 18th in those categories, respectively.
For a matchup with contrasting strengths, the projection still lands on Minnesota finishing the better of the two Thursday night.
In Other News...
Wild Injury Problems Just Reached Jared Spurgeon
The injury list around the Wild has been piling up early enough that every new absence feels less like bad luck and more like part of the nightly routine. Brock Fabers fractured skull already put a major dent in the blue line, and injuries have also touched Filip Gustavsson, Nick Foligno and Marcus Foligno, leaving Minnesota to juggle its roster while trying to stay afloat through the opening stretch.
Now the burden has reached captain Jared Spurgeon, who was unavailable for the next game after getting hurt in the previous matchup. With Nico Sturm also leaving that game after taking a shot to the head, the Wild had to rework things again for their meeting with the Winnipeg Jets, a reminder that the team is spending as much energy adjusting its lineup as it is trying to build any kind of early-season rhythm. [Read more 🡒]
Wild Waste Another Kaprizov Night In Frustrating Home Loss
Kirill Kaprizov did his part, but it still was not enough to keep the Wild from getting burned at home again. Minnesota fell 5-2 to Winnipeg in the second game of a back-to-back, and Kaprizov accounted for both goals while trying to drag a tired lineup into the points column against one of the Wests steadier clubs.
The Jets did most of their damage through balance and speed, with Cole Perfetti striking twice and Mark Scheifele piling up a goal and two assists. Winnipeg also got a big night from its top line, leaving the Wild to sort through another frustrating result in a building where they needed more than a standout effort from their star winger. [Read more 🡒]
Wild Suddenly Have A Goalie Dilemma Fans Should Be Watching
Jesper Wallstedt has given the Wild something they always want but rarely get for free: steady goaltending while the incumbent is out. With Filip Gustavsson sidelined by offseason hip surgery, Wallstedt has handled the primary job well enough to keep Minnesota from feeling the absence as sharply as it might have, and it has quietly changed the shape of the season in net. What looked like a temporary fill-in assignment is starting to feel like a real evaluation of where the organization stands at the position.
Gustavsson is expected back later in the year, and when he does return the Wild will have a decision to manage rather than a simple handshake and a thank-you. Two capable goalies can be a luxury, but they can also become a logjam when the offseason arrives and the club has to weigh contracts, roles and possible trade interest. For Minnesota, the upside is obvious. The harder part may be figuring out how to keep both goalies happy, and whether that is even realistic. [Read more 🡒]