The Minnesota Wild have bigger fires to put out right now, but Jesper Wallstedt is quickly becoming one of the most important decisions on their board.
Wallstedt, a restricted free agent next summer, has been eligible for an extension since July 1. So far, though, the Wild have had other priorities. Locking up Quinn Hughes is the urgent item, and their search for a top center such as Dylan Larkin has also demanded plenty of attention from the front office.
That makes sense. Minnesota can’t really map out its future until it knows what Hughes is doing - whether he stays, for how long, and at what price. Once that situation is settled, the Wild can turn back to Wallstedt and decide whether they want to get ahead of the market or let the season play out.
That’s a different conversation than it would have been a year ago. At this time last season, Wallstedt was a major question mark after a rough AHL campaign, and Minnesota responded by giving Filip Gustavsson a six-year extension at a $6.8 million AAV to establish a clear baseline in goal.
Wallstedt then forced the issue. He posted a .915 save percentage in the regular season, started 10 of the Wild’s 11 playoff games, helped them beat the Dallas Stars, and delivered seven quality starts. The rookie took over the net in a way that made the Gustavsson extension look like a safety net rather than a long-term answer.
Still, the sample size is small. Wallstedt made 33 starts in the regular season, 43 overall when the playoffs are included, and that’s not much to go on for a goalie.
In a lot of cases, the cautious play would be to ask for another season like that before handing out a major extension. That caution matters even more because Gustavsson is recovering from hip surgery, which means Wallstedt will likely have to carry the load early.
But waiting comes with risk, and the market for goalies is starting to move in a way that should make Minnesota nervous.
The cap explosion hasn’t fully reached goaltenders yet, but the numbers are climbing. Sergei Bobrovsky got three years at a $7 million AAV even though he turns 38 before the season and had an .877 save percentage last year. Dan Vladař landed five years at a $5.5 million AAV after one good season following years as a mediocre backup.
If those are the prices for less appealing options, what happens if Wallstedt backs up his rookie year with another strong season and then reaches RFA status next summer? That’s where the threat of an offer sheet becomes real.
The league has already seen that tactic used again. The Philadelphia Flyers targeted the Anaheim Ducks in an attempt to get Leo Carlsson. The New Jersey Devils tried to pry Barrett Hayton from the Utah Mammoth via offer sheet.
Those moves were meant to force smaller-market clubs into uncomfortable spending. Minnesota isn’t a budget team, but its cap picture could still put it in a vulnerable spot.
Kirill Kaprizov’s $17 million AAV is already on the books, and Hughes’ next deal could add another huge number. If a team like New Jersey decides to get aggressive with Wallstedt, it could do real damage even if Minnesota matches.
That’s why the Wild should be looking for a way to get ahead of this now. The San Jose Sharks just did that with Macklin Celebrini, who became the highest-paid player in the NHL before even taking the ice in his third season.
The challenge, of course, is that Wallstedt and his camp have every reason to bet on themselves. Another big year could put him in line for a massive payday next summer. Minnesota’s task over the next few months is to make that payday happen later rather than sooner.
Evolving-Hockey projects a three-year extension at a $4.8 million AAV, but Wallstedt has already banked $4.4 million on his current deal. That may be enough for him to roll the dice and chase a bigger number next offseason.
A stronger offer from Minnesota could change the equation. Something in the range of three years at a $6-to-$7 million AAV would be a very different conversation, and from the Wild’s perspective, it might be the ideal outcome.
If the rumors are right that Hughes wants a three-year deal, Minnesota could keep its goaltending spending under $14 million, which would be about 12% of the salary cap over that stretch. That’s a manageable figure for the Kaprizov/Hughes/Matt Boldy window.
A shorter Wallstedt deal would also buy the Wild time. Gustavsson has a full no-move clause for the next two seasons, covering the final year of Wallstedt’s current contract and the first year of any extension. After that, the clause drops to a 15-team no-trade list in Year 3, or Year 2 of a Wallstedt extension, which would give Minnesota more flexibility if Wallstedt is still there.
That doesn’t mean Gustavsson has to be moved immediately. A three-year bridge for Wallstedt would give the Wild a real chance to evaluate both goalies before making a franchise-shaping decision.
If Wallstedt becomes everything they think he can be, Gustavsson becomes a trade option. If Gustavsson reclaims the No.
1A role, Minnesota still has a strong, young, movable goalie tandem to work with.
Even if it costs a little more now, that kind of deal would give the Wild certainty at the most important position on the ice. And with the Kaprizov/Hughes/Boldy window taking shape, goalie is not the place to pinch pennies.
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