Calvin Pickard may not have been the loudest move Minnesota made this offseason, but the Wild could end up leaning on him more than anyone expected.
That’s the reality when you bring in a 34-year-old veteran who logged only 16 NHL games last season. Pickard is in the mix because Filip Gustafsson is working back from injury, and Minnesota needs a goaltender it can trust early. The bigger question is what kind of trust Pickard actually earns.
The resume is long enough to matter. The New Brunswick native first turned pro with the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters in the 2011-12 season, and since then he has built a career that includes 329 AHL games and a .913 save percentage there. In the NHL, he has appeared 191 times and posted a .901 save percentage across stops with the Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, Philadelphia Flyers, Detroit Red Wings, and Edmonton Oilers.
His time in Edmonton gives the Wild both the best-case and worst-case version of Pickard. He was part of the Oilers’ recent Cup runs and went 8-2-0 in 10 postseason starts, but last season was a rough one. Pickard finished 5-6-2 with a career-worst .871 save percentage in 16 NHL games.
That number is ugly, but there’s at least some reason to think it may not be the final word on his game. Goalies have had a hard time behind Edmonton’s defense during this stretch, and Pickard wasn’t the only one who got dragged into the mess. Tristan Jarry is a good example: he had a career-resurgence year with the Pittsburgh Penguins before being traded to the Oilers, then dropped from a .909 save percentage in Pittsburgh to .857% after arriving in Edmonton.
The Oilers used four starting goaltenders last season - Pickard, Jarry, Stuart Skinner, Connor Ingram - and none of them finished above a .900 save percentage. That makes a change of scenery a reasonable bet for Pickard, especially when you look at where he has been strongest.
He has generally handled high-danger chances well. Last season, Pickard posted a .673 save percentage against high-danger shots, while the expected mark sat at .635. Each year he played in Edmonton, he also finished with a positive expected high-danger shot-attempt save percentage.
The trouble spot has been medium-danger chances. Pickard has consistently given up more goals than expected on those looks every season in Edmonton, and that seems to be the hole in his game.
Minnesota may be a decent place to hide that weakness. The Wild have done a good job of limiting those chances, allowing 465 medium-danger shots last season, seventh-best in the league. They’ve ranked in the top ten in that category three straight seasons, which says a lot about how they defend.
That kind of structure matters for a goalie like Pickard. Minnesota has built a team that pushes most shots into less dangerous areas, and that should make life easier for whoever is in net.
For now, Pickard looks like the right kind of stopgap. He can steady the crease while Gustafsson gets healthy, and he should also give Iowa a veteran presence once he moves down there.
That could matter after the departures of Samuel Hlavaj and Cal Petersen, who the Wild haven’t re-signed. Those two combined to play 55 games in Iowa last season.
Still, there’s a wrinkle hanging over all of this. Minnesota is looking to trade for an impact forward, and Filip Gustavsson or Jesper Wallstedt could be part of the package. The rumors around those two have quieted some, but the Wild reportedly dangled Wallstedt for Robert Thomas at the trade deadline, so it’s fair to think they would still consider that kind of move if the right deal came along.
If that happens, Pickard’s role changes fast. Counting on him to be a true NHL backup at this stage of his career carries more risk than the Wild probably want. In 11 NHL seasons, he has made more than 20 starts only three times, and he has posted a positive goals-saved-above-average rating only once, when he saved 3.2 goals above average in 2023-24.
That’s why the most realistic version of Pickard is also the quietest one. He’s a solid AHL goalie and should be serviceable in a short-term NHL backup role.
Minnesota can live with that. The real tension comes if the goalie depth chart changes again because of a trade or another injury.
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