The NHL’s contract market is about to get a whole lot more expensive, and Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are the two names sitting right at the center of it.
That’s the real tension here: whichever defenseman signs first is positioned to set a new league record in average annual value, only for the other to come along and potentially top it. Both are elite blue-liners.
Both are in their primes. Both are on expiring deals.
And both are about to force the market to reckon with just how high top-end money can climb.
Hughes might be the first domino, especially with Minnesota already having so much invested in landing him from Vancouver last season. The Wild would like to shut down the chatter quickly, because the longer this drags on, the louder the speculation gets. And that speculation has a familiar shape: the idea that Hughes could eventually maneuver his way to New Jersey to join brothers Jack and Luke.
That possibility will hang around until Hughes actually signs with Minnesota. The Wild are said to be confident they’ll get something done before the season starts, but confidence only buys so much time. If Hughes goes into training camp unsigned, the noise is only going to get bigger.
A three-year extension would make a lot of sense for him if he does stay put. It would line him up to hit unrestricted free agency the same year as Jack, while still leaving him a chance to chase a Cup with a Minnesota team that’s described as being a Dylan Larkin-type player away. And even on that shorter term, Hughes could still push past Macklin Celebrini’s record $18.8 million average annual value.
Celebrini signed a five-year deal in July, but Hughes would have more leverage because he’s a year away from unrestricted free agency rather than restricted free agency. That matters, and it could matter a lot if he decides to press for the maximum. A $20 million AAV sounds wild on paper, but the way the cap is rising, it no longer feels like a fantasy.
This summer already showed where the market is headed. The Philadelphia Flyers signed Leo Carlsson to a five-year offer sheet with an $18-million AAV, and the Anaheim Ducks matched it. That contract helped shape Celebrini’s deal, and it’s going to keep echoing through negotiations for Hughes, Makar, Nikita Kucherov and other stars as they become eligible for extensions.
Of course, Hughes doesn’t have to squeeze Minnesota for every last dollar. There’s no precedent in Minnesota for a star willingly taking less, though the Wild did hand Kirill Kaprizov an eight-year extension with a $17-million AAV last September.
If Hughes pushes all the way to the max cap hit, Bill Guerin may have no choice but to meet him there. The price to acquire him was steep, and the Wild’s president of hockey operations is not likely to let that kind of asset walk without exhausting every angle.
Makar’s situation feels different, even if the money could end up even bigger. Colorado has a history that points toward a little more flexibility, and Nathan MacKinnon set that tone when he signed his eight-year extension in 2022 for just $100,000 more than the league’s highest AAV at the time.
He could have blown past it. He didn’t.
The length of Makar’s next deal is another key piece. A long-term extension seems more likely for him than for Hughes, in part because of everything that ties him to Colorado.
The Avalanche drafted him in 2017. He won a Cup there.
And the idea of him leaving feels remote. Avalanche president of hockey operations Joe Sakic said Sunday that "dialogue's been great" with Makar's camp.
Back in June, he was even more direct: "Cale's going to finish his career here."
If Makar wants the full eight years, he has until Sept. 15, when the new collective bargaining agreement cuts the maximum term to seven years. But a five-year deal could make plenty of sense, too.
It would keep him aligned with MacKinnon’s remaining prime and set him up for another huge payday at 33, when he’d be nearing the back end of his own peak. That shorter-term approach also fits the fact that Makar already showed a willingness to go shorter on his current contract, signing for six years when Colorado likely preferred eight.
If he goes five years, the starting point looks like $19 million. Anything below that would feel like a discount, though that possibility can’t be ruled out. In the end, the sense is that Colorado is prepared to do whatever it takes.
The best read here? Hughes signs first on a three-year deal with a $19 million AAV, and Makar follows with a five-year extension at $19.5 million.
In Other News...
Wild Just Got More Expensive For Minnesota In Quinn Hughes Talks
The Wilds pursuit of Quinn Hughes was already going to be a major financial exercise, and the Colorado Avalanche just made it even tougher. Cale Makars new eight-year, $163.2 million extension reset the bar for elite defensemen, giving Minnesota a fresh point of reference as it tries to work out a long-term deal with Hughes before he reaches the final year of his contract.
For a team that has been trying to keep its core stable, the timing matters as much as the number itself. Hughes was always going to command a premium if the Wild got serious about locking him in, but Makars deal raises both the price and the pressure, adding another layer of complexity to negotiations that were already headed into delicate territory. [Read more 🡒]
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Kaprizov Faces A Big Wild Question Beyond Zuccarello
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Zuccarellos value to Kaprizov has never been in doubt, but the fit is becoming more complicated as his speed naturally tapers off and the old formula gets harder to sustain over a full season. For the Wild, that makes the next stretch feel less like a test of Kaprizov alone and more like a larger roster puzzle, because the answer may determine whether his prime years are maximized or merely managed. [Read more 🡒]