The Minnesota Wild are about to drop the puck on Thursday, and the early read from around the league is a mixed bag with a sharp edge to it. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille, and Shayna Goldman have Minnesota at a 76% chance to make the playoffs and with the eighth-best Stanley Cup odds, but their concerns about the depth chart are real enough. The headline may have said “Weak depth,” yet the bigger story is how deliberate that weakness looks.
That’s because this roster is built with a very old-school split in mind. Bill Guerin has leaned into a setup where the top of the lineup is supposed to carry the scoring load, while the bottom six is built to grind, hit, and hold the fort. Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek are the drivers, with Minnesota hoping younger names like Danila Yurov and Maxim Shabanov can make meaningful second-year jumps.
After that, the identity changes fast. This isn’t a bottom six stocked with guys who are expected to chip in like Jaden Schwartz, Nikolaj Ehlers, or Anton Lundell.
It’s a group with a different job description entirely. If Yurov opens on the top line, Ryan Hartman is the only bottom-six forward who scored 20 goals last season.
New addition Bobby Brink reached 15, which was a career high. Marcus Foligno, Nick Foligno, Yakov Trenin, and Michael McCarron all finished below 10.
Minnesota’s approach is basically a throwback: the scoring lines score, and everyone else tries to keep the game even while bringing physical edge. That may not be everyone’s preferred blueprint, but it is very much Guerin’s construction.
The Wild have also spent real money to make it work. Hartman comes in at a $4 million cap hit, Marcus Foligno at $4 million, Nick Foligno at $900K, Trenin at $3.5 million, McCarron at $3.33 million, and Brink at $2.75 million. Add it up and Minnesota has nearly $18.5 million tied up in bottom-six forwards, which works out to 17.7% of the salary cap.
That becomes even more notable when you compare it with the kind of depth spending seen on recent Conference Final teams. The source notes that Carolina and Montreal have shown expensive bottom-six groups can work, though there’s important context behind both examples.
In Carolina’s case, $8.5 million of that total belongs to Ehlers, who is a luxury on the third line. Montreal’s flexibility last year was helped by Lane Hutson and Ivan Demidov being on entry-level contracts, and the Canadiens still have an advantage there with Hutson, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky signed to pre- Leo Carlsson Era deals.
Minnesota didn’t always have to think this way. Last season, the Kaprizov-Boldy-Hughes trio cost just under $24 million against the cap, which gave the Wild room to operate.
That changed on July 1, when Kaprizov’s AAV jumped to $17 million, and it got even tighter with the team trying to add Dylan Larkin’s $8.7 million cap hit. Once that happened, the bottom six was no longer extra spending.
It had to earn its keep.
And if this group is going to justify the build, offense may not be the place to look. The Wild will need that depth to win its minutes defensively, and the numbers suggest there’s a base to work with.
Evolving-Hockey rated Marcus Foligno and Nick Foligno in the 91st and 90th percentiles, respectively, for defensive impact last year. McCarron landed in the 82nd percentile, Trenin in the 71st, and even Brink checked in at the 88th percentile despite standing 5-foot-8.
The question is whether a bottom six assembled almost entirely around defense can really carry that load. Minnesota still has everyone from that group back from last season, and the postseason offered at least one reminder that depth goals can matter. The Wild got two important depth goals from defensive pylon Vladimir Tarasenko in the playoffs.
That leaves the season with a clear pressure point: if Minnesota is going to make this version of the roster work, it may need one of those depth forwards - Hartman or Brink, most likely - to provide the kind of jump that changes the picture.
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Wild Just Got An Early Reality Check On Charlie Stramel
Charlie Stramels preseason stint with the Minnesota Wild offered an early look at where the 2023 first-round pick stands, and the answer now is that his next steps will come in the AHL with Iowa. The 21-year-old has not played a professional regular-season game yet, but the organization clearly wants him getting into a real game rhythm soon after spending time around the NHL group.
For Minnesota, the move fits the larger picture of a roster still dealing with a major preseason loss on the blue line, with Brock Faber sidelined indefinitely after surgery for a skull fracture. In that context, Stramels eventual debut for Iowa matters as part of the Wilds broader development track, even if his path to the NHL is still in its early stages. [Read more 🡒]
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The comparison between the two clubs points to a game that could hinge on small edges rather than any dramatic separation. A computer model even sees it as a narrow Predators win, projecting a 4-3 finish, which only adds to the sense that Minnesota will need a sharp start in a building where every opening-night detail tends to matter. [Read more 🡒]
Bill Guerin Is Running Out Of Time To Fix The Wild
The Wild have spent the offseason trying to get sharper down the middle and sturdier on the blue line, but the biggest moves remain unfinished. Minnesota has made several roster changes in free agency, and the front office has shown a willingness to swing big if it can improve the roster for a playoff run, yet the overall picture still feels unsettled as training camp approaches.
Bill Guerin has been involved in trade discussions for a top center, with Dylan Larkin among the names that surfaced, while the club has also been working to lock down Quinn Hughes on a long-term extension. Those conversations speak to the urgency around this team, but they also underline the same problem the Wild keep running into: the summer can bring activity without actually delivering the kind of answers Minnesota needs. [Read more 🡒]