The Minnesota Vikings have their quarterback hierarchy set after naming Kyler Murray the starter, and that decision has immediately pushed J.J. McCarthy into the backup role.
Once that happened, the trade chatter was inevitable. But the problem for Minnesota is simple: McCarthy is in that awkward middle ground where moving him makes some sense, yet the offers probably won’t.
Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton put the odds of a McCarthy trade at 30%, and his reasoning comes down to two things: the Vikings’ need for a capable No. 2 behind a quarterback with Murray’s injury history, and the market price for a player still viewed as a project. As Moton wrote, "Given Murray's injury history, the Vikings need a capable backup," Moton writes.
"So, the front office isn't likely to give McCarthy away for a late-round pick. Teams would likely need to give up a middle-round pick for Minnesota to consider a deal, which is too high a price for a project player in his early stages of development."
That’s the bind. Minnesota would probably listen if a stronger offer came along, especially something in the range of a third-round pick. But after using a first-round pick on McCarthy just two years ago, the Vikings aren’t in a spot where they can simply dump him for pennies on the dollar.
And the production doesn’t help their leverage. In 10 games last season, his first starts in the NFL at just 22 years old, McCarthy threw for 1,632 yards with 11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 72.6 passer rating. He lost the starting job because of it, and there’s no way around how rough that stretch was.
That poor season is exactly why the trade market may not cooperate. A fifth-round pick would feel light for Minnesota, but it might still be more than some teams are willing to part with after what McCarthy put on tape last year.
So the Vikings are left in a difficult spot. Trading McCarthy would be understandable on paper, but the kind of return they’d likely receive makes the move hard to pull off. A deal isn’t off the table - that’s where the 30% comes from - but the more likely outcome is that Minnesota keeps him around through at least the 2026 season.
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