The Minnesota Vikings head into 2026 with a fresh start at quarterback and, for once, a matchup that looks tilted in their favor.
Kyler Murray is set to open the season as Minnesota’s fourth different Week 1 starter in four years, another veteran handoff for Kevin O’Connell as he tries to turn the offense into something more explosive. On the latest episode of Two Old Bloggers, Dave Stefano and Drew Bunting, filling in for Darren Campbell, dug into what separates a real Super Bowl team from a merely dangerous one.
Matthew Coller’s 10-year study set the standard: 80% of Super Bowl teams scored at least 450 points, 90% had a quarterback rating above 95, and 85% ran for more than 1,700 yards. That’s the bar Minnesota is chasing.
Dave pointed out, “Kevin O’Connell has never hit 450 in a season,” while Drew made the case that the offense should be doing more with the talent already in place: “Why aren’t the Vikings flirting with 30 points a game every week? You have 10 to 12 possessions, you have these great players.
What the hell are we doing?”
The defense, at least, already looks the part. Under Brian Flores, every season has held opponents under 362 points, which puts that side of the ball squarely in contender territory. The offense still has work to do.
There’s also a major quarterback note behind Murray’s arrival. J.J.
McCarthy has been demoted, Carson Wentz has been named the backup, and McCarthy is now running scout team. Darren believes this could be J.J.’s last season in purple.
Minnesota also gets a boost from the return of Harrison Smith, who is back for Year 15 and sits one interception away from tying Ed Sharockman’s franchise record of 40. Drew called him “a coach on the field. That’s worth the signing right there.”
The Vikings also brought back Jihad Ward, another move that fits the way Flores likes to build his defense. Drew joked that Flores collects veteran edge rushers like Pokémon cards, then added, “You don’t get to the playoffs without depth.”
The bigger story this week may be the opponent. Green Bay comes in banged up and unsettled, missing Josh Jacobs, who is on the commissioner’s list, and Micah Parsons, who is on PUP. The Packers’ offensive line is in flux, they’ve changed 20 coaches, and they’ve lost roughly 11 key roster pieces.
Drew didn’t sugarcoat it: “No Jacobs and no Parsons. The Vikings are at home facing a team who doesn’t have their best offensive player and doesn’t have their best defensive player. You can’t lose this game.”
He also gave Minnesota a clear edge up front, ranking Green Bay’s offensive line 27th and the Vikings’ at 12th, which he said creates an 8-to-10-point advantage for the home team.
One thing both hosts kept circling back to is the turnover battle. It’s the swing factor in this team’s results, and the numbers are hard to ignore: KOC’s Vikings are 33-5 when they win or even tie the turnover margin, and 5-20 when they lose it. As Drew put it, “When you got a double-digit lead, somebody needs to tell KOC that’s when you go for the throat.”
That’s where the frustration and the optimism meet for Minnesota. The roster has enough to win this game, maybe comfortably. The question is whether the Vikings can actually separate, or whether they’ll drag everyone back into the usual mess.
Drew’s prediction leans Minnesota by four or five, with the possibility of an 8-to-10-point win. He also expects the under to be the better bet. And in the wider NFC North picture, he thinks all four teams can reach double-digit wins.
Still, even with the Packers shorthanded, nobody is pretending this will be easy. As Drew said, “It’s the Vikings, so in the fourth quarter when it’s 13 to 13, we’re all texting each other.”
For Minnesota, though, this is the best edge it’s had against Green Bay in five years. Now it just has to cash it in.
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