The Minnesota Vikings’ Sunday Night Football win over the Dallas Cowboys wasn’t just another tally in the win column - it marked a second straight encouraging performance from rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy. And while the stat sheets show progress, the real story lies in the layers beneath the numbers.
Let’s start with the basics: McCarthy has now put together back-to-back games with a positive EPA (Expected Points Added) per play - a key efficiency metric that helps us gauge a quarterback’s true impact on the offense. Those two games, against Washington and Dallas, are the only ones this season where McCarthy has posted above-average results in that category. That’s a notable step forward, especially considering how rough his early-season outings were.
At one point, McCarthy was sitting dead last in the league in EPA per dropback, trailing even fellow rookie Cam Ward. Now, he’s climbed out of that basement. But before we start printing any “QB of the Future” banners, there’s an important caveat: the defenses he’s faced during this mini-resurgence have been, to put it kindly, struggling.
Dallas ranks 32nd in defensive EPA per play - that’s dead last - and Washington isn’t far behind at 30th. When we isolate for pass defense, the numbers flip, but the story stays the same: Washington is last, Dallas 30th.
And just for added context, the only other team the Vikings have scored 30 or more points against this season? Cincinnati - who ranks 31st in both defensive EPA and passing EPA.
In other words, McCarthy’s best performances have come against the three worst defenses in football. That doesn’t mean his progress isn’t real, but it does mean we need to evaluate it through a nuanced lens.
So, is this just schedule luck? Or is McCarthy actually improving?
One way to measure that is by comparing his performances to how other quarterbacks have fared against the same defenses. Against Washington, McCarthy’s game ranked fourth-best out of the 14 opposing QBs they’ve faced.
Against Dallas, he was second-best out of 14. That’s not nothing - he outperformed some big names, including Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love.
But again, context matters. Michael Penix Jr., another rookie, put up better numbers against Washington than McCarthy did.
Still, McCarthy’s improvement hasn’t just been about who he’s playing - it’s also about how he’s playing. And that takes us to an important turning point: Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell recently made the decision to dial back the emphasis on McCarthy’s mechanics.
That might sound counterintuitive - after all, mechanics are the foundation of quarterback play. But for McCarthy, the heavy focus on footwork and throwing form seemed to be slowing him down mentally.
The coaching staff believed that the constant self-monitoring was creating too much cognitive load, leading to hesitation and poor decisions. So, they pulled back.
They let him play more freely, trusting his natural instincts and athleticism to take over.
Since then, McCarthy’s looked more comfortable. The ball is coming out quicker.
He’s processing faster. He’s making better decisions.
That doesn’t mean the mechanical issues are gone - his lower-body footwork still needs refinement, especially on dropbacks - but it’s clear that removing some of the mental clutter has helped.
Now, let’s talk tape.
When you dig into the film from the last two games, it becomes clear that McCarthy got a lot of help - both from the opposing defenses and from O’Connell’s play design.
Take his first touchdown against Washington. Linebacker Bobby Wagner froze in coverage, leaving a gaping hole for McCarthy to exploit.
The corner tried to recover, but he had no real shot. It was a busted coverage, plain and simple - the kind of mistake that even average quarterbacks should be able to capitalize on.
And to McCarthy’s credit, he did.
Washington gave him several of these layups - quick, easy completions into soft zones. These aren’t highlight-reel throws, but they’re the kind of routine plays McCarthy struggled to hit earlier in the year.
So, yes, he deserves some credit for executing. But let’s be honest: this is the bare minimum for NFL quarterbacking.
There’s a reel of throws from the last two weeks that look solid on paper but are more about defensive breakdowns than McCarthy’s brilliance. That’s not a knock - it’s just the reality of evaluating young quarterbacks. You have to separate what’s being earned versus what’s being given.
And then there’s the scheme.
Kevin O’Connell has been dialing up some excellent designs in the passing game lately. Over the past two weeks, the Vikings have picked up 43 yards on five screen passes.
That’s efficient football. Add in a 9-yard tap pass to Jalen Nailor and a couple of screens to Brandon Powell and Justin Jefferson (both negated by penalties), and you start to see a pattern: the Vikings are manufacturing easy yards for their young QB.
That’s smart coaching. When you’ve got a rookie under center, especially one still finding his footing, you want to give him high-percentage throws that build confidence and rhythm. O’Connell is doing just that - mixing in screens, quick hitters, and motion-based concepts that simplify the reads and get the ball out of McCarthy’s hands fast.
So, where does that leave us?
McCarthy is improving. That much is true.
He’s playing faster, making better reads, and hitting the throws he needs to hit. But the level of competition matters - and right now, he’s been facing some of the softest defenses in the league.
Until we see him replicate this kind of performance against a top-tier unit, it’s hard to say just how real the progress is.
The good news? He’s got another favorable matchup coming up against the New York Giants, who rank 29th in defensive EPA per play and 21st against the pass. That’s another chance to build momentum, stack confidence, and keep the arrow pointing up.
But eventually, the schedule will stiffen. And when it does, we’ll get a clearer picture of who J.J. McCarthy really is - and whether this recent stretch is the start of something sustainable or just a brief hot streak against cold defenses.