The Chicago Bears wasted no time making noise in 2026, hanging 59 points on the Carolina Panthers in Week 1 and immediately forcing the rest of the NFC North to take notice. Now Caleb Williams and company get their first division test of the season at home against the Minnesota Vikings, with Chicago installed as the clear favorite.
That line has already moved hard since the lookahead number. The Bears opened as 3-point favorites before Week 1, but their explosive debut and the injury to Kyler Murray against Green Bay pushed the number 2.5 points in Chicago’s direction. Murray is still working through concussion protocol, and the Bears are expected to be the favorite regardless of who starts at quarterback for Minnesota.
Minnesota comes in off a win of its own, but it took a huge defensive turnaround to pull it off. The Vikings beat Green Bay in Week 1 after a second-half surge from Brian Flores’ defense, which got home repeatedly with blitz pressure. Carson Wentz threw three touchdowns after Murray went down, and the Vikings flipped the game by ramping up the heat.
Even with that victory, there are reasons to hesitate on Minnesota here. Jordan Love still piled up 387 yards against the Vikings, and Chicago’s offense looks like it can punish a secondary that may have trouble holding up if Flores keeps sending extra rushers. If Minnesota leans on the same blitz-heavy approach, Ben Johnson’s group has the kind of firepower to make it pay.
That’s the heart of the handicap: Chicago’s offense looks special, while Minnesota’s quarterback situation remains unstable. The Bears were the league’s top offense in EPA/Play through one week, and they were one of the better home teams last season, covering four of six games as home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings were 18th in EPA/Play and 28th in success rate despite putting up 39 points against Green Bay.
Chicago did give up 37 points to Carolina, so the defense isn’t spotless. But with the Vikings’ quarterback room in shambles and Murray facing an uphill battle to clear protocol by Sunday, the Bears have a real chance to keep rolling.
There’s also some skepticism around Chicago in the broader 2026 conversation. The Bears have been mentioned as a potential regression team, and Iain MacMillan picked them to get upset in back-to-back weeks in his Road to 272 column. Still, the combination of Johnson, Williams and a home-field edge is enough to keep Chicago backed here.
My score prediction: Bears 34, Vikings 24.
In Other News...
Vikings Face One Decision That Could Swing Everything Against Chicago
The biggest question hanging over the Vikings-Bears matchup is whether Chicago will have Kyler Murray available after the concussion issue that has clouded the week. If he cannot go, Carson Wentz would be the next man up, and that changes the feel of a divisional game that already carries plenty of edge. Minnesota enters with the kind of run defense that can force an offense to be patient, while Chicago is dealing with its own concerns up front and in the backfield.
For Brian Flores, the challenge is making life difficult for Caleb Williams no matter who is under center on the other side. The Vikings will also be watching how Jordan Addison fits into a matchup that could turn on a few key plays, while Chicagos defense leans on Jaylon Johnson to help keep things tight. In a rivalry like this, one quarterback decision can ripple through everything else, and Minnesota knows how quickly that can tilt the game one way or the other. [Read more 🡒]
Vikings QB What-If Just Got A Lot More Painful
The Vikings 2024 draft plan looks a lot different in hindsight, and not in a way that should make anyone in Minnesota feel better. ESPN insider Kevin Seifert reported the team tried to trade up to No. 3 to take Drake Maye, but could not get a deal done with the Patriots, leaving them to stay put and draft J.J. McCarthy at No. 10.
Since then, Minnesota has already moved on to Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz on the depth chart, while Maye has gone to New England and immediately turned the Patriots into a problem for the rest of the league. After leading them to the Super Bowl and coming close to MVP-level recognition in his first full season as a starter, he is exactly the kind of quarterback what-if that can linger around a franchise for a long time. [Read more 🡒]
Brian Flores Faces A Tough Caleb Williams Decision For Bears Week 2
The Bears came out of Week 1 with a rushing performance that still has the Vikings paying attention, and the injury report adds another layer to the matchup. DAndre Swift and Kyle Monangai were both listed as limited during the week, while right tackle Darnell Wright moved from absence to limited participation, a small step forward after missing practice time.
For Brian Flores and Minnesotas defense, those statuses matter because Chicagos ground game could shape how much pressure the Vikings can bring elsewhere on the field. Even with the limited tags, the Bears still have enough uncertainty around their backfield and front line to make Week 2 a more complicated test than a simple follow-up to opening weekend. [Read more 🡒]