The Minnesota Vikings have a short-yardage problem, and it showed up again in ugly fashion against the Indianapolis Colts.
Early in the first quarter last Sunday, JT Tuimoloau blew up Aaron Jones on a fourth-and-1 stop that left the U.S. Bank Stadium crowd stunned.
It was the fourth straight run on the opening drive, and the second in a row that went nowhere. The sequence was a blunt reminder that Minnesota’s ground game, even against a defense that has struggled badly against the run, still isn’t where it needs to be.
That was supposed to be the kind of matchup the Vikings could bully. With Jordan Mason, Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Addison, and T.J.
Hockenson back from injuries, and with Indianapolis entering Week 7 allowing 4.8 yards per carry while ranking 32nd in EPA per rush allowed and 31st in rushing success rate allowed, this was a prime chance to get the offense rolling on the ground. Instead, the Vikings came away with more questions.
And those questions matter even more now, with Detroit up next and a four-game November stretch hanging over the schedule. Minnesota needs to be dependable in third-and-short and fourth-and-short if it wants to steal a division win on the road.
Those conversions don’t just move the chains. They keep the defense rested and keep a dangerous Lions offense on the sideline.
The numbers tell the story. Minnesota has converted 60% of its third-and-short runs - defined as two yards or fewer - which ranks 26th in the league.
Since the start of the 2025 season, the Vikings have turned those situations into first downs just 47% of the time, the worst mark in the NFL. That’s not a one-game blip.
It’s a pattern.
Kevin O’Connell’s approach has evolved, though. Earlier in his tenure, he leaned heavily toward the pass in these spots, and the results weren’t good. The issue wasn’t just conservatism or aggressiveness; it was that the calls often got too cute, with long-developing pass concepts and trick looks that ended in sacks or failed conversions.
This season, the Vikings have clearly shifted. The promotion of Keith Carter to offensive line coach and the addition of former Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith as assistant head coach pointed toward a more physical identity. The message was obvious: this offense wanted to get tougher and more direct.
But even with that philosophical change, the short-yardage results still haven’t matched the intent.
After the Colts game, O’Connell said many of his calls are canned system plays. He said he gives the quarterback two options and lets him “can” into the second one depending on the defensive look.
That means execution matters, but so does the pre-snap picture. On the fourth-down stop against Indianapolis, Blake Brandel missed a block, and Will Fries and Brian O’Neill didn’t create the movement needed for Jones to find daylight.
At the same time, the Colts may have been sitting on the run, firing off the line with confidence that the play was coming.
That’s the real problem. Whether it was the old version of this offense trying to outsmart people or the current version pounding away with repeated runs, the Vikings have become too easy to diagnose on third- and fourth-and-short.
Detroit won’t make that any easier.
The Lions’ defense may not have a strong pass defense - they are 32nd in that category - but they are giving up only 4.1 yards per carry and are tied for second in the league with 21 team sacks. Aidan Hutchinson is driving the pass rush, and Alim McNeill is anchoring the interior. That front is the strength of the unit, and Minnesota can’t afford to treat it lightly, especially after what the Vikings have shown against weaker defenses this season.
So what’s the answer? More creativity.
Given the issues up front, Minnesota needs short-yardage calls that fit Kyler Murray’s strengths. That means read-option looks, RPOs, and designed rollouts that either give him a quick throw past the sticks or move him outside the pocket where he can create with more space.
The Vikings have the pieces to make that work: a strong receiving group, a resurgent T.J. Hockenson, and a quarterback whose game fits shotgun and pistol concepts.
There’s also a blueprint against this Detroit defense. In Week 4 against Carolina, the Lions allowed 11 completions on 12 RPO pass attempts by Bryce Young.
On one of those plays, Carolina used a pistol look, moved Brycen Tremayne across the formation, and got Detroit to stay in zone. Tetairoa McMillan found the soft spot, Jack Campbell bit on the run fake, and Young pulled the ball back from Chuba Hubbard before hitting McMillan for a 21-yard gain and a first down.
Dan Campbell later admitted the Panthers’ RPOs “put [their] run-pass-hook defender in conflict there a little bit.”
That’s the point of the concept. It forces hesitation. It freezes linebackers and opens space for the run game behind it.
For Minnesota, that middle ground may be exactly what the offense needs. It can help the Vikings get the run game moving, slow down Detroit’s front, and keep the Lions from dictating the game on defense. More important, it can give O’Connell a way to stay aggressive without becoming predictable.
If the Vikings can start winning those third- and fourth-and-short snaps on Sunday, it would do more than just extend drives. It would build confidence, drain Detroit’s defense, and send a clear message that Minnesota can handle a road divisional test.
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