Vikings Have A Real Shot At 12 Wins For One Reason

With key player signings and strategic upgrades, the Minnesota Vikings are poised to turn last year's success into a potential 12-win season.

The Vikings have built a roster that can make 12 wins look less like a bold prediction and more like a realistic target. After the disappointment of 2025 and all the offseason noise around the team, Minnesota doesn’t look like a club trying to start over. It looks like one that has added enough firepower to push for a big year right away.

A lot of that optimism starts with Kyler Murray. The one-year, $1.3 million deal changed the shape of the offense the second he signed it, and Kevin O’Connell made the move official by naming him the Week 1 starter over J.J.

McCarthy. Murray brings the kind of dual-threat ability that can tilt a game in a snap, and he now gets to work with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and a healthy T.J.

Hockenson in the passing game. That’s a loaded group, and it gives Minnesota a chance to stress defenses every time it lines up.

The ground game has also been reworked into something much more forceful. Assistant head coach Frank Smith and offensive line coach Keith Carter rebuilt the rushing approach around Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, and rookie Demond Claiborne.

If the line stays healthy, with Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, and Brian O’Neill anchoring it, the Vikings can play with real balance and put pressure on opponents in shootouts. The argument is simple: if this offense can push toward 28 points a game, the win total can climb fast.

The defense is just as important, and it got a major boost when Harrison Smith decided to return. After retirement rumors and a cap-related release, Smith came back for a 15th NFL season on a one-year, $12.25 million deal. At 37, he remains the emotional center of the team, and his résumé still stands out: he is one of only six DBs in NFL history with 35-plus interceptions and 20-plus sacks.

Minnesota did lose Jonathan Greenard, Jonathan Allen, Hargrave, and Jamal Adams, who suffered a torn quad. But Smith’s return helps stabilize the group, and Brian Flores is still pushing the same aggressive identity that has made this unit so difficult to face.

The Vikings extended Flores for a fourth season after the defense held opponents to 19.2 points per game since 2023, the second-fewest in the league. That means the pressure package isn’t going anywhere.

Flores still leans on the same blitz-heavy style, the same Cover-2 and Cover-0 looks, and the same constant disguise. Smith is a huge part of that system, lining up near the line, helping set things up, and then dropping back to bait quarterbacks.

Around him, Dallas Turner is in position for a full-time starting role, Andrew Van Ginkel is setting the edge, Kyle Van Noy brings veteran edge pressure, and Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange are expected to help clog the middle. The expectation here is a top-10 defense, with Smith as the player who keeps the whole thing together.

The schedule gives Minnesota a chance to get moving early. The Packers visit in Week 1 without Micah Parsons, their superstar defensive end, and that gives the Vikings a real edge if Murray and the offense come out sharp.

After that comes another divisional matchup with Ben Johnson and the improved Chicago Bears. If Minnesota handles those games, a 2-0 start is there.

The stretch before the bye also includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road, plus games against the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints, which could put the Vikings at 4-1 or 5-0.

If the offense clicks and the defense keeps playing at that level, Minnesota can build an early cushion in the division before the second half of the season even begins. But it all starts with Week 1. Beating the Packers is the first step, and it would set the tone for everything the Vikings believe they can become.

In Other News...

Vikings Suddenly Face A Bigger J.J. McCarthy Decision Than Expected

Sam Darnolds hip injury suddenly pushed the Vikings into a more complicated quarterback picture than they had a few days ago. After leaving the game, Darnold is scheduled for an MRI to learn how serious the injury is, and that diagnosis could shape Minnesotas availability at the position as the next stretch of games approaches.

The bigger wrinkle is what it means for J.J. McCarthy, who was already sitting behind the veterans on the depth chart. Minnesotas decision to keep him as the third-string option now carries more weight, especially with the Seahawks lingering as a possible trade partner thanks to past interest and familiar coaching ties. Seattles offense is also viewed as a cleaner fit for McCarthy than what he is working with in Minnesota, which only adds another layer to a decision the Vikings did not expect to be making this soon. [Read more 🡒]

Vikings Suddenly Have A Real 2026 Aaron Jones Problem

The Vikings offensive planning for 2026 is already hinting at a different shape around the run game, with Kevin OConnell still calling plays and Frank Smith arriving as assistant head coach to help install more wide-zone concepts. Minnesota is also expected to be moving forward with Kyler Murray at quarterback, which puts even more weight on finding a rushing setup that fits the new-look offense and keeps the ground game from becoming an afterthought.

Jordan Mason looks like the big beneficiary of that shift. ESPNs Dan Graziano noted that the schematic changes could favor Mason and even push him ahead of Aaron Jones Sr. in the pecking order, which is a real wrinkle for a backfield that has leaned on Jones before. There is no certainty yet, but the direction of the offseason suggests Minnesota may be preparing for a very different conversation about how its carries are distributed. [Read more 🡒]

Vikings Add A Familiar Brian Flores Piece To An Unsettled Front Seven

The Vikings kept building out their front seven by bringing back a familiar name in Jihad Ward, a veteran edge rusher whose value has long been tied to his flexibility. Ward has spent time lining up both on the edge and inside, the kind of versatility Brian Flores has leaned on as he keeps reshaping the defense around interchangeable pieces and multiple looks.

For Minnesota, the move adds another experienced layer behind the established starters and fits with the broader push to stock the defense with veterans who can handle different roles. Wards previous pass-rush production gives the Vikings something useful, but his arrival also underscores how unsettled this group still is as the team keeps sorting out exactly how the front seven will settle in. [Read more 🡒]