The Vikings couldn’t have asked for a cleaner measuring-stick opener than Green Bay.
Week 1 brings all the ingredients: NFC North tension, real consequences, and two teams that know each other far too well. It also arrives with a little history baked in.
Ten years ago, the Vikings opened U.S. Bank Stadium against the Packers in Week 2 of the 2016 season and beat Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.
In 2022, Kevin O’Connell began his own head-coaching run with a home win over the Packers too.
A lot has changed since then. Rodgers is gone, Jordan Love is in, and Mike Zimmer has been replaced by O’Connell.
But the games themselves have stayed tight. Since 2016, Minnesota is 11-8-1 in the matchup, and the Packers have still outscored the Vikings by only 36 points across those 20 meetings.
That stretch has produced plenty of memorable ones: the 2018 tie, Green Bay’s 43-34 shootout win to open the 2020 season, the 34-31 back-and-forth battle in 2021, the wrong-cleats game, Anthony Barr’s hit on Rodgers, and the two near-comebacks by the Packers in 2024.
This version of the rivalry arrives with both sides carrying pressure, but not the same kind of momentum.
Minnesota’s summer stayed relatively calm outside of the quarterback competition. The Vikings avoided major injury trouble beyond Jamal Adams and Tyler Batty, saw Kyler Murray settle into O’Connell’s offense and connect with Justin Jefferson, and got a defense that dominated joint practices. They also added pass rusher Kyle Van Noy, while Harrison Smith returned in time for the start of the season.
Green Bay, meanwhile, is dealing with a very different kind of setup. Josh Jacobs landed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List after an off-field incident, making it highly unlikely he plays this week.
The Packers responded by trading for Steelers running back Kaleb Johnson and are expected to lean on Marshawn Lloyd as well. Johnson ran for just 69 yards on 28 carries last year, and Lloyd has six career carries for 15 yards.
That is a long way from Jacobs’ production. He went over 1,300 yards in 2024 and finished with 929 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.
The Packers can’t really afford that kind of drop-off, either, because Matt LaFleur’s offense has leaned more run-heavy since Jordan Love took over at quarterback. The ground game is the engine, and if it sputters against Minnesota, the whole operation gets tougher.
There are other concerns up front. Green Bay’s blocking is already under a cloud, with ESPN’s Mike Clay ranking the offensive line 24th entering the year.
The defensive side has its own holes. Micah Parsons, who was a defensive MVP frontrunner before tearing his ACL last year, is out. Pro Football Focus had only Myles Garrett and Will Anderson Jr. graded higher among edge rushers, and Parsons posted 12.5 sacks and 79 pressures in just 436 pass-rush snaps.
Beyond him, the Packers are light on proven pass rush. They moved Rashan Gary to the Cowboys this offseason, Devonte Wyatt has slipped from his 2023 peak of 45 QB pressures to 22 last year, and while Javon Hargrave was added, his remaining impact is an open question. Clay’s highest projected sack total for a Packers player outside Parsons is Lukas Van Ness at 5.4.
The secondary brings even more uncertainty. Green Bay’s two starting cornerbacks ranked 36th and 45th by PFF grade last season, Keisean Nixon was part of a competition during camp and preseason, and Clay ranked the Packers’ DB group 26th in the league.
Those are the kinds of weaknesses Minnesota can attack. The Vikings finished fourth in sacks last season, and if Love ends up in obvious passing situations, he’ll see Brian Flores’s blitz package in full.
Minnesota also has reasons to feel good on offense if the protection holds. In 2024, Murray ranked eighth among quarterbacks by PFF when kept clean, and if Green Bay can’t get pressure, he should have time to work to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and the rest of the group. The Vikings’ offensive line is healthy and appears settled into the new run scheme.
That is part of why Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook, and why the home side may even deserve a little more respect than that given the edge in the building.
Still, Love changes the equation. Last season he finished as PFF’s fifth-highest-graded quarterback, and Green Bay ranked fifth in total passing Expected Points Added.
He handles pressure well, has the arm to push the ball downfield, and has the speed at receiver to make those throws dangerous. There’s also plenty of familiarity between Love, LaFleur and Flores.
So yes, the Vikings have the cleaner setup on paper. But the Packers have been too steady, too dangerous and too familiar to treat this as anything close to a sure thing.
The NFC North race starts right here, and Minnesota can’t afford to let Green Bay walk away with an early grip on it.
Welcome back, football. This is a strong one to begin with.
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